BTC Enters the Second Half of the Bear Market; the Final Drop Is Unlikely to Fall Below $45,500

ChainCatcher report: Analyst Murphy notes that the on-chain average cost basis of BTC held for 1–2 years (yellow line) has crossed with that of BTC held for 1–3 months (orange line). This signal is nearly 100% reliable on-chain and indicates that BTC has officially entered the latter half of a bear market. Additionally, Murphy states that Willy Woo’s long-term Bitcoin valuation metric, CVDD, reached $45,410 at the end of last month, rising only $506 since February 10. This reflects a significant reduction—or near-complete cessation—of on-chain trading by early whale holders. CVDD is one of the few indicators in BTC’s history that has never failed—price has always remained above CVDD, with bear market bottoms approaching it but never breaking below. Therefore, even if there is a “final drop,” BTC will not fall below approximately $45,500. Theoretically, this implies a maximum potential decline of about 30%, though in practice, the drop is likely to be much smaller.