BlockBeats report: On April 29, BNP Paribas warned in its latest quarterly outlook that if international oil prices rise to $200 per barrel, combined with supply chain disruptions and global monetary tightening, the global economy could enter a recession. BNP Paribas stated that the escalating situation in Iran has already begun to impact the global economy. The bank expects global GDP growth to slow compared to its年初 forecasts, inflation to remain elevated, and central banks may be forced to maintain a more hawkish policy stance.
Affected by the situation in the Middle East, international oil prices continued to rise on Wednesday. The WTI crude oil intraday gain expanded to as much as 5%, while Brent crude surpassed $109 per barrel. Markets are concerned that tensions between Iran and the United States over the Strait of Hormuz could further threaten global energy transportation.
Barclays believes that even if oil prices do not reach the extreme scenario of $200, with its baseline forecast averaging around $100 per barrel in the first half of the year, the global economy is already nearing the brink of recession. The bank defines a "global recession" as global GDP growth below 2.5%, and expects global economic growth this year to be approximately 3%, below the 3.5% average over the past decade. The report notes that, in addition to surging oil prices, two other major risks could also trigger a recession:
Disruptions in transportation through the Strait of Hormuz have worsened energy and supply chain bottlenecks;
High inflation is forcing central banks worldwide to continue tightening monetary policy.
Barclays also warned that prolonged conflict could affect helium needed for chip manufacturing, Asian rubber and chemical components, and global fertilizer supplies, further driving up prices for food and industrial goods.