Odaily Planet Daily reports: Mike McGlone, Senior Commodities Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, posted on X that the market is debating whether the situation in Iran could become the catalyst for the next U.S. economic recession. Currently, U.S. stock valuations are at historical highs, while the 180-day volatility of the Nasdaq 100 Index is near its lowest level since 2018. If volatility rises significantly in the future, it may validate his assessment of an impending market turning point. The current decline in crypto assets may merely be the beginning of a “post-inflation deflationary domino effect”; the prior surge in crypto markets, coupled with increased supply, has led to a price correction that partially reverses the earlier overvaluation.
In the oil market, recent sharp price increases often liquidate short positions, stimulate increased supply, and may trigger risks of a global economic recession. The high volatility in precious metals and energy markets could gradually spill over into equities. He anticipates that, following Bitcoin in 2024 and gold in 2025, U.S. Treasury bonds (T-bonds) may become the primary outperforming asset in 2026. However, if future developments include Bitcoin stabilizing above $74,000, copper rising to $6, silver climbing to $100, the S&P 500 reaching 7,000, the Dow Jones hitting 50,000, and U.S. Treasury yields surpassing 5%, his current assessment could be invalidated.