According to Bloomberg Businessweek, approximately $200 million in suspicious trades were flagged on prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket between January and June 2026. An analysis by Bloomberg of around 34,000 trades flagged by Polysights showed that geopolitical and war-related bets were the primary drivers, with Iranian-related bets peaking in late February. Of the flagged trades, 71% were funded through U.S.-regulated crypto exchanges. The top 1% of profitable wallets captured more than half of the profits, with 57% of these wallets created within 24 hours prior to trading.
Bloomberg Reports $200 Million in Suspicious Bets on Prediction Markets in the First Half of 2026
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Summary
Bloomberg Businessweek reported $200 million in suspicious bets on prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket during the first half of 2026. On-chain analysis by Polysights identified 34,000 flagged transactions, with geopolitical and war-related wagers driving the activity. Bets on price predictions related to Iran surged in late February. Seventy-one percent of the funds originated from U.S.-regulated exchanges. The top 1% of wallets captured over half the profits, with 57% created within 24 hours of the trades.
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