BlockBeats news: On January 13, BlackRock recently released its 2026 Global Outlook report. The report highlights the massive scale of investments in AI infrastructure, leading to a phenomenon where "micro is macro," and bringing challenges such as increased leverage and the illusion of diversification. Overall, the report maintains a pro-risk stance, overweights U.S. equities (especially those related to AI), and expresses optimism about active investment opportunities.
Three Core Investment Themes in the Report:
Micro is macro:AI development is dominated by a few companies, with capital expenditures so large that they can impact the overall macroeconomy. Investments could reach $5-8 trillion (2025-2030), supporting U.S. economic growth in 2026 (with investment contributing three times the historical average).Even as the labor market cools, it remains resilient. However, it is uncertain whether revenue will be sufficient to cover expenses and how much will flow back to the tech giants. The report suggests that AI could accelerate innovation, but major technological changes over the past 150 years have not disrupted the long-term 2% growth trend in the U.S. Nevertheless, a "growth breakout" scenario is now conceivable.
Leveraging up: AI builders make substantial upfront investments while revenue lags, leading to increased system leverage.Combined with high government debt, this creates vulnerability. Favor private credit and infrastructure financing. Take a tactical underweight in long-term government bonds (such as U.S. Treasuries), as high leverage and rising capital costs are unfavorable for long-duration bonds.
Diversification Mirage: Under the dominance of major trends, traditional diversified allocations may in fact amount to concentrated bets.Investors need to actively hold risk, maintain portfolio flexibility (having a Plan B), and seek unique sources of returns from private markets and hedge funds.
The report specifically points out that,BlackRock views digital assets, especially stablecoins, as the infrastructure (the "plumbing of the financial system") for payments and settlements, rather than merely speculative assets. Stablecoins are seen as the "digital dollar rails," evolving from crypto-native tools into bridges connecting traditional finance with digital liquidity. They are expanding into areas such as cross-border payments and settlements, particularly in regions where traditional systems are slow, expensive, or fragmented.The report suggests that encryption is becoming integrated into mainstream finance, with stablecoins maturing into infrastructure that supports global liquidity flows and overlaps with traditional finance.