Odaily Planet News: Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan posted a long article on the X platform stating that since January 2025, the market has been in a crypto winter, which may be nearing its end. Bitcoin has fallen 39% from its all-time high in October 2025, and Ethereum has dropped 53%. This is a comprehensive crypto winter triggered by factors such as excessive leverage and OG profit-taking. Crypto winters typically last about 13 months. For example, Bitcoin reached its peak in December 2017 and hit bottom in December 2018; subsequently, it peaked again in October 2021 and hit bottom in November 2022.
He believes that the current "winter" began in January 2025, but the inflows into ETFs and Digital Asset Vaults (DATs) have masked this fact. He categorized the assets into three groups for analysis:
1. The first group (BTC, ETH, XRP) fell only 10.3% to 19.9% due to receiving significant ETF/DAT support.
2. The second group (SOL, LTC, LINK) had ETF approvals during 2025, declining 36.9% to 46.2%.
3. The third group (ADA, AVAX, SUI, DOT) did not receive ETF support, with declines reaching 61.9% to 74.7%.
The data shows that during this period, ETFs and DATs collectively purchased 744,417 bitcoins, worth approximately $75 billion. Without this funding support, the retail market has been in a harsh winter since January 2025.
Finally, he stated that good news is ignored during a bear market but is stored as potential energy. When market sentiment normalizes, this energy could be strongly released, and the market is expected to quickly rebound strongly. Subsequent positive factors depend on strong economic growth triggering a rise in risk appetite, the positive impact of the CLARITY Act, sovereign states' acceptance of Bitcoin, or it could simply be a matter of time.