Bitwise: Bitcoin investors holding for three years avoid losses; short-term traders face a 47% loss risk.

Odaily Planet Daily reports that digital asset management firm Bitwise Asset Management, after analyzing price data from July 17, 2010, to February 11, 2026, found that historically, the probability of incurring a loss for investors holding Bitcoin for at least three years is only 0.70%. The longer the holding period, the lower the risk of loss: the probability of loss drops to 0.2% for a five-year hold and reaches 0% for a ten-year hold. In contrast, investors with holding periods under three years face significantly higher risk: those trading intraday have a 47.1% chance of unrealized loss, those holding for one week face a 44.7% chance, one month holds a 43.2% chance, and even those holding for one year still face a 24.3% loss probability. Bitwise notes that Bitcoin’s current price is approximately $65,000, down about 50% from its October 2025 high. However, the realized price for investors holding three to five years is around $34,780, indicating that this group remains overall in a roughly 90% unrealized profit position. (Cointelegraph)