BlockBeats report: On June 22, the global market's primary focus gradually shifted from the Middle East conflict itself to monetary policy and liquidity reassessment. Although the talks between the U.S. and Iran in Switzerland achieved阶段性 progress, with both sides agreeing to establish a high-level political oversight committee and outline a 60-day roadmap toward a final agreement, the Strait of Hormuz has not yet fully resumed normal operations. Significant differences remain between Iran and the U.S. on issues related to Lebanon and oil sanction exemptions, meaning geopolitical risks have not been fully resolved.
The energy market is beginning to reflect expectations of supply recovery. Libya's crude oil production has risen to its highest level since 2013, Iraq plans to gradually restore output to pre-conflict levels, and Qatar has initiated preparations to restart LNG exports. The market is reassessing the impact of restored Middle Eastern supply chains on global energy prices and inflation trajectories, as the supply shocks caused by war are gradually being offset by returning supply.
However, the dominant force shaping market pricing is now the Federal Reserve’s policy shift. The interest rate market has fully priced in a 25-basis-point hike in September, and Goldman Sachs has simultaneously lowered its gold price target, expecting no rate cuts this year. New Fed Chair Walsh continues to push for weakening forward guidance and the dot plot mechanism, significantly increasing uncertainty around the policy path. From the sustained rise in U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index’s strength to the large-scale unwinding of global carry trades, all indicate that capital is flowing back into the dollar system.
Meanwhile, following the Bank of Japan’s interest rate hike, although the Japanese government has expressed support for policy normalization, the market has begun to focus on the potential for further rate increases and the risk of yen intervention. The Ministry of Finance’s public warning that it will take action against foreign exchange speculation reflects that major central banks worldwide are gradually entering a more restrictive policy environment.
For the crypto market, the biggest variable is no longer the situation in the Middle East, but the liquidity pressure caused by the sustained rise in global funding costs. Although declining energy risks help ease inflation concerns, a stronger dollar, rising U.S. Treasury yields, and increasing expectations of Fed rate hikes will continue to suppress risk asset valuations. When markets begin pricing in “higher rates for longer” or even “another rate hike,” the focus for crypto markets will shift from geopolitical events to whether new sources of liquidity will emerge.