Bitunix Analyst: Market Shifts to Peace Dividend, with Global Funding Costs and Liquidity Order in Focus

Huo Xing Finance reports that on June 16, market focus has gradually shifted from the Middle East conflict itself to the reallocation of capital following a potential peace agreement. As Trump arrived in Europe to attend the G7 summit, both the U.S. and Iran simultaneously confirmed they will sign a memorandum of understanding on the 19th, with ongoing progress in reopening the Strait of Hormuz. However, according to statements from MOL, the world’s largest tanker operator, what the market truly cares about is no longer whether the agreement will be signed, but whether shipping, insurance, and energy supply chains can return to normal operations. This is the core reason why oil prices have recently declined and equities have risen, yet shipping companies remain cautious—risk events are receding, but risk premiums have not yet fully disappeared. From a macro perspective, global markets are simultaneously navigating three intersecting capital flows. First, declining energy risks are prompting revisions to inflation expectations; if the U.S.-Iran agreement is successfully implemented, it will help lower energy prices and transportation costs. Second, major central banks are diverging in policy: the Bank of Japan raised rates to a 31-year high but announced it will cease further tapering of bond purchases, effectively aiming to control bond market volatility. Third, the new Fed Chair, Walsh, is set to preside over his first FOMC meeting; the market’s earlier expectation of rate cuts has rapidly shifted toward “higher rates for longer,” with even discussions emerging about potential rate hikes. In other words, markets are no longer trading on easy liquidity, but on the repricing of global capital costs. Notably, financial markets have not exhibited clear risk aversion. SpaceX has expanded its IPO fundraising target to $85.7 billion; NVIDIA has issued another $20 billion in investment-grade bonds; and BlackRock notes that approximately $8–9 trillion in assets are flowing out of money market funds and back into risk assets. This indicates that liquidity is not lacking—rather, it is seeking new allocation directions. As vast sums concentrate in AI, space industries, and large tech firms, valuation risks are accumulating in tandem. Recent economist surveys show over 70% of respondents believe the probability of a 20%+ correction in U.S. equities within the next year exceeds historical norms, signaling growing concern over the disconnect between asset prices and fundamentals. For the crypto market, this is a classic phase dominated by liquidity and risk appetite. Peace agreements, falling oil prices, and capital inflows are improving overall risk sentiment. However, if Walsh signals a stronger focus on inflation control or balance sheet reduction at this week’s FOMC meeting, markets may reassess future liquidity expectations. Additionally, SpaceX’s options listing, an early triple witching day, and the S&P 500 quarterly rebalancing all suggest that global market volatility could significantly increase this week. In this environment, BTC’s primary role is not as a leading riser but as a barometer for whether global capital remains willing to bear risk. The short-term market is trading on peace dividends, but over the medium to long term, what truly needs validation is whether asset valuations can be sustained by real earnings and cash flows under a high-interest-rate regime.