ME News reports that on April 10 (UTC+8), market focus has shifted further from the geopolitical conflict itself to its tangible transmission into inflation dynamics. As the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran remains fragile, the earlier rapid rise in oil prices is now being incorporated into economic data frameworks, making tonight’s CPI release the first key indicator to reflect the “Iran premium.” Amid still-resilient employment data, markets have transitioned from recession concerns to pricing in a resurgence of inflation, placing risk assets—previously supported by expectations of rate cuts—at risk of repricing. From a policy and market reaction standpoint, bond markets have already entered a defensive posture, with traders heavily positioning for rising yields as a hedge, signaling heightened sensitivity to upside inflation surprises. Meanwhile, the Fed is beginning to pay closer attention to the strengthening transmission channel from energy prices to inflation expectations, implying that even without further rate hikes, interest rates will remain elevated for longer, and the pace of liquidity release will be further delayed. Current interest rate markets have significantly scaled back expectations for rate cuts this year, reflecting upward revisions in funding cost projections. Across asset classes, this structural shift is pressuring risk assets: on one hand, rising oil prices elevate inflation expectations and erode real liquidity; on the other, stable employment data removes any immediate incentive for policy pivots, reviving the “high rates + high inflation expectations” regime. In this environment, capital is increasingly favoring short-term hedges and structural allocations over directional risk exposure. Returning to the crypto market, BTC continues to trade within a range, fundamentally reflecting investor hesitation toward absorbing risk. From the liquidation map, liquidity has reaccumulated in the $72,600–$74,100 range above, with a potential short squeeze zone forming near $75,000. However, without new capital inflows, price is likely to face repeated resistance in this zone. Below, a concentrated short-term support zone has formed near $71,100; a break below this level would open a liquidity refill path toward $69,600. Overall, the structure indicates the market lacks clear directional momentum and is instead awaiting macro data to trigger capital reallocation. The critical factor lies in tonight’s CPI: if it further reinforces expectations of persistent inflation, it will directly influence interest rate trajectories and liquidity pricing—determining whether BTC triggers an upside short squeeze or triggers downside liquidity replenishment. The market is not lacking direction; it is lacking a catalyst capable of breaking the constraints imposed by inflation and interest rates. (Source: BlockBeats)
Bitunix Analyst: CPI to Reflect Energy Shock, Inflation Drives Risk Pricing
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Summary
Inflation data is expected to reveal the impact of the energy shock as the market shifts focus to macro risks. Rising oil prices and a fragile US-Iran ceasefire are influencing tonight’s CPI report, viewed as a key indicator of inflation persistence. With employment data remaining resilient, expectations for rate cuts have diminished, pushing up funding costs. Altcoins to watch may face downward pressure as high rates and elevated inflation expectations return. BTC is trading range-bound near $72,600–$74,100, with $75,000 acting as a potential short squeeze level. A breakdown below $71,100 could push prices toward $69,600. Traders are awaiting inflation data to confirm the next directional move.
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