ChainThink reports that on March 10, Bitfinex released a report stating: “Despite the dual shock of escalating geopolitical tensions following Iran’s ‘Black Saturday’ two weeks ago and disappointing U.S. non-farm payroll data, which added only 92,000 jobs, the Bitcoin support range of $60,000–$64,000 demonstrated unexpected resilience. Since then, international crude oil prices have risen sharply, which may impact future Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures, as energy accounts for approximately 9% of the final CPI calculation. This inflationary pressure could pose headwinds for all risk assets.”
However, for Bitcoin, two forces are currently at play. The first is that Bitcoin tends to experience more pronounced and faster volatility compared to other risk assets. As its correlation with high-risk tech sectors increases and its correlation with safe-haven assets like gold decreases, Bitcoin often exhibits more exaggerated downward moves before other risk assets decline. Yet, it also typically bottoms out earlier than other risk assets. Given that Bitcoin has significantly underperformed the S&P 500 or Nasdaq over the past two quarters, this dynamic may be unfolding.
The current market condition can be described as a "major deleveraging wave." Retail investor sentiment remains highly cautious, with Bitcoin experiencing a 52% peak-to-trough drawdown since its October 2025 high, leading to the near-complete erosion of speculative bubbles in the market. This is corroborated by the Leverage Reset Index—the ratio of total open interest to exchange spot reserves—which has fallen to a multi-year low of 0.32. This indicates that price discovery is now primarily driven by spot demand rather than leveraged derivatives, laying the foundation for high-probability mean-reversion moves following the contraction of macro volatility.