Bitcoin's weak rebound fails to reverse the downtrend, HYPE faces top signals

This week’s focus: Bitcoin’s daily chart structure has weakened—can the short-term rebound effectively break above the upper boundary of the downtrend channel? Has the seven-stage rally in HYPE reached its conclusion? Below, we systematically analyze the current market structure across multiple timeframes and outline medium- and short-term trading strategies for this week.

This week's key trading insights summary:

• Multi-timeframe trend structure analysis of BTC. (See Part 1 for details.)

• BTC this week's market outlook and medium- to short-term trading strategies. (See Part Two for details.)

• HYPE hourly chart trend structure analysis. (See Part Three for details.)

• HYPE this week's market outlook and short-term trading strategy. (See Part 4 for details)

Last week's trading strategy and core viewpoints market validation:

• BTC Short-Term Trading Performance: Bitcoin executed a short-term short position (1x leverage) last week, successfully generating a profit of approximately 5.07%. (See Table 1 for details)

• BTC Price Trend Forecast Verified by Market Movement: In last week’s article, we noted that Bitcoin was continuing its range-bound downward correction, with a short-term strategy focused on “selling on rallies.” The current market movement has confirmed our earlier forecast.

1. Daily Chart Trend Structure Analysis for BTC

Bitcoin _ Daily K-line Chart:

Figure 1

• Uptrend Channel (Yellow): As shown in Figure 1, since the low on February 6, 2026, Bitcoin has been oscillating upward within an uptrend channel. (Lower boundary: line connecting the lows of February 6 and March 29; Upper boundary: a line drawn parallel to the lower boundary, passing through the high of March 17)

• Short-term downtrend channel (blue): After reaching a high of $82,850 on May 6, Bitcoin has been trading within a short-term downtrend channel. (Upper boundary: connecting the two rebound highs on May 14 and May 26; Lower boundary: connecting the two pullback lows on May 7 and May 23)

• Based on the ascending channel (yellow), the price has broken below the midline and is now seeking stronger support at the lower boundary.

• Based on the short-term descending channel (blue), the price found temporary support at the lower boundary of the channel (approximately $72,500) and is currently in a weak rebound phase toward the upper boundary of the channel.

Comprehensive analysis: From a technical structure perspective, Bitcoin is currently under dual influence from short- and long-term channel dynamics. The present rebound is primarily a correction of short-term oversold conditions, targeting the upper boundary of the short-term downtrend channel (blue). However, since the price has broken below the midpoint of the uptrend channel (yellow), the overall technical structure has weakened. After the rebound concludes, the price is likely to resume its prior downward trend and further test the support strength at the lower boundary of the uptrend channel.

2. In-depth Analysis of BTC Hourly Price Structure: (Analysis Period: 4 Hours)

Bitcoin 4-hour K-line chart

Figure 2

① As shown in Figure 2, since the high of $82,850 on May 6, the 4-hour chart reveals an adjustment structure consisting of 10 segments: from "Segment 27-28" to "Segment 36-37," including two descending central zones:

• Central D: Composed of the three overlapping segments 28-29, 29-30, and 30-31.

• Central Zone E: Composed of three overlapping segments—32-33, 33-34, and 34-35.

② From the 4-hour chart structure, the market is currently in the 36-37 rebound phase. If the rebound encounters resistance and reverses after reaching $75,000–$76,000 without forming a valid breakout, the market is likely to resume its previous range-bound downward trend and test the support zone at $69,500–$70,500.

1. BTC Weekly Price Movement Forecast:

This week’s key insight: Monitor how both bulls and bears test the resistance zone of $75,000–$76,000 and the support zone of $69,500–$70,500.

2. Key Resistance Level:

• First resistance zone: $75,000–$76,000 area (near the lower boundary of Central E)

• Second pressure zone: $78,500–$79,500 range (near the upper and lower boundaries of two central zones)

3. Key Support Level:

• First support level: $69,500–$70,500 range (previous key support level)

• First support level: around $65,000 (previous key support level)

4. This Week's Trading Strategy (Excluding Impact from Sudden News)

①. Medium-term strategy:

Bitcoin _ Daily K-line Chart: (Position Monitoring Model)

Figure 3

Position Monitoring Model: As shown in Figure 3, the price has fallen below the "Bull-Bear Channel," entering a technical weakness zone. This week, monitor its retest of the Bull-Bear Channel (approximately the $75,000–$76,000 range). If the price rebounds to this level and shows confirmation signals such as stagnation or rejection, initiate a medium-term short position. To manage risk, limit the initial position to under 30% of total capital; subsequently, increase the medium-term position to approximately 60% after the price breaks below the lower boundary of the uptrend channel (yellow).

② Short-term strategy: Use 30% of your position size, set a stop-loss level, and identify spread opportunities based on support and resistance levels. (Use a 30-minute or 60-minute time frame for trading.)

③. For short-term trading, to dynamically respond to the complex evolution of the market, we have pre-established two specific action plans, A and B.

• Option A: Rebound faces resistance; sell on rallies.

• Open Position: When the coin price rebounds to the $75,000–$76,000 range and encounters resistance, combined with a quantitative model’s top signal, consider establishing a short position of less than 30%.

• Risk Management: Initial stop-loss set above $77,000.

• Close positions: When the price adjusts near key support levels and aligns with model signals, gradually close positions to lock in profits.

• Option B: A valid breakdown below support signals a顺势 short position.

• Open Position: If the price effectively breaks below the support range of $69,500–$70,500 and is confirmed by a model top signal, consider establishing a short position of less than 30%.

• Risk Management: Initial stop-loss level set above $72,000.

• Close positions: When the price declines to a key support level combined with model signals, gradually close positions to lock in profits.

HYPE 4-hour K-line chart

Figure 4

1. As shown in Figure 4, over the 4-hour timeframe, HYPE has clearly formed a seven-segment structure since its low of $38.14 on May 14, including a “rising central segment” (from 40-41 to 46-47). Segments 43-44, 44-45, and 45-46 overlap, forming the “rising central segment.”

2. As previously warned in the weekly review: due to the formation of a momentum bearish divergence at Endpoint 45, combined with a top alert signal from the spread trading model, these two factors created a resonance effect, indicating a high probability of a short-term high forming at this level. Market movement has confirmed this assessment: the price adjusted from Endpoint 45 ($64.75) to Endpoint 46 ($56.30), with a maximum decline of 13.05%.

3. Currently, comparing the departure segment (46-47) of the central point with the entry segment (42-43), the upward momentum appears weak, indicating a high probability of potential momentum divergence.

4. According to our proprietary "spread trading model," Endpoint 47 has triggered a strong top warning signal (red dot + white dot).

5. Overall, if a topping signal forms at Endpoint 47 while the momentum divergence signal remains valid, the probability that this marks the conclusion of the rally since Endpoint 40 increases significantly. Subsequent price action should closely monitor the retest of the key range between $62.50 and $64.57.

1. HYPE Weekly Price Movement Forecast:

This week's HYPE key insights:

• When observing a clear top signal from Endpoint 47, determine whether momentum divergence is confirmed.

• If this phenomenon occurs and the price subsequently breaks decisively below the support zone of $62.50 to $64.57, it could indicate that "Endpoint 47" marks the conclusion of the rally that began on May 14.

2. HYPE This Week's Short-Term Trading Strategy: (Buy on Support)

This week, HYPE short-term trading should follow the strategy of "buying on dips, avoiding chasing rallies." The key is to observe how price reacts when testing the $62.50 to $64.75 range:

Strategy One: Enter Long Positions When Price Stabilizes at Support Level

If the price retraces to this area and shows signs of support and stabilization, combined with bottom signals triggered by two models, consider initiating a small long position with a position size under 30%, and strictly adhere to stop-loss discipline.

Strategy Two: Support Failure Leading to a Higher-Timeframe Correction

If the price effectively breaks below this area, the short-term pullback will escalate into a larger-scale adjustment (e.g., on the daily chart), extending both the duration and magnitude of the correction, with the initial downside target seen in the $54 to $56.3 range.

1. Short-term Trading Review: (See Table 1)

We strictly followed our operational protocol and executed a short-term (short) trade last week based on trading signals generated by our proprietary "spread trading model" and "momentum quantitative model," achieving a profit of 5.07%.

① Summary of Bitcoin Short-Term Trading Details: (Leverage * 1x)

Table 1

② Short-term Trading Review: (See Figure 5)

• Opening position strategy:

a. When the price rebounds near $78,000 and shows signs of resistance, forming a bearish "top divergence" candlestick pattern;

b. The "spread trading model" triggers a top alert signal (white dot);

c. The Kinetic Quantitative Model has issued a kinetic divergence signal at the peak.

Therefore, we established a 30% short position at $77,449.

• Close Position Strategy:

a. When the price drops to around $73,000 and a reversal signal appears, with the K-line forming a "bottom divergence pattern";

b. The "Spread Trading Model" triggers a strong bottom warning signal (red dot + white dot), coinciding with a bottom resonance signal from the "Momentum Quantitative Model."

Therefore, we fully closed our position near $73,519.

• Summary: This transaction resulted in a successful profit of approximately 5.07%.

BTC 60-minute K-line chart: (Momentum Quantitative Model + Spread Trading Model)

Figure 5 (Short-Term Trading Diagram)

1. When opening a position: Set the initial stop-loss immediately.

2. When profit reaches 1%: Move the stop-loss to the entry price (breakeven point) to secure your principal.

3. When profit reaches 2%: Move the stop-loss to the breakeven point at 1% profit.

4. Continuous Tracking: For every additional 1% profit in the coin price, the stop-loss level will move up by 1% accordingly, dynamically protecting and locking in gains.

Financial markets are constantly changing; all market analyses and trading strategies must be adjusted dynamically. All views, analytical models, and trading strategies mentioned in this article are based on personal technical analysis and are intended solely for personal trading journal use. They do not constitute any investment advice or basis for action. Market participation involves risk; invest with caution and do not make decisions based on this information.