BlockBeats news: On July 22, Crypto Quant analyst Axel Adler Jr. posted that Bitcoin has recently entered a low-volatility compression phase, with the 30-day moving average of the 1-week realized volatility dropping to 28.3, a decline of approximately 31% from the June 25 peak of 41.6, and returning to around the 8th percentile of its historical distribution since 2016, meaning that volatility was higher than the current level on 92% of trading days in the past.
Meanwhile, the 30-day momentum of Bitcoin’s open interest relative to its market cap has remained negative for 21 consecutive days, indicating that market leverage is steadily declining rather than accumulating in a low-volatility environment.
The current price has rebounded approximately 11.4% from the June low, but without an expansion in derivatives positions, reducing the risk of a large-scale liquidation cascade.
However, Bitcoin is currently below the 200-day moving average at $72,666. If volatility rises again above 35 while the price remains unable to surpass the long-term moving average, downside risk could increase.