Mars Finance reports that on June 1, on-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated in his latest report that the Bitcoin market has entered a clear volatility compression phase. The one-week realized volatility (30-day moving average) has dropped from approximately 39 in early March this year to around 17 currently, a quarterly decline of over 56%, nearing historical lows. BTC price is currently holding near $73,500, still below the 200-day moving average of approximately $79,500. Historical data shows that extremely low volatility often indicates the market is building energy, typically preceding a significant directional move. However, volatility compression itself does not indicate direction—it merely signals that a new trend is imminent. Meanwhile, the Delta indicator, which reflects changes in market premium (the difference between market capitalization growth rate and realized market capitalization growth rate), has remained negative for six consecutive months and further declined to approximately -0.0013 in May. This indicator suggests that Bitcoin’s market capitalization growth continues to lag behind its realized market capitalization growth, signaling a contraction in market risk appetite and valuation premiums. The current market environment—characterized by “low volatility + premium cooling”—is not typical of an overheated bull market but rather resembles a consolidation phase following a cooling of sentiment. If BTC subsequently reclaims the 200-day moving average and Delta rebounds toward zero, it would signal a return to an expansionary risk appetite cycle; conversely, if volatility continues to decline and Delta worsens, the market may enter a deeper risk-off phase. Axel Adler Jr. concluded that the current market direction remains neutral, but the degree of compression is already high, increasing the probability of a significant directional move in the near future.
Bitcoin volatility drops 56% from quarterly high, market enters compression phase
MarsBitShare
Summary
Bitcoin volatility has declined by 56% from its quarterly high, entering a clear compression phase, according to Axel Adler Jr. One-week realized volatility (30-day MA) dropped from 39 in early March to 17. Market volatility is now near historical lows, as BTC trades below its 200-day MA at $79,500. The Delta indicator reached -0.0013 in May, indicating a shrinking risk premium. The market remains compressed, with potential for a significant move ahead.
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