Author:Francisco Rodrigues
Compile: DeepTide TechFlow
The Tides of Depth:
For a long time, Bitcoin has been touted as "digital gold," but this narrative is now facing a serious challenge amid recent market volatility triggered by Trump's tariff policies and Arctic geopolitical tensions. While gold prices steadily climbed and approached the $5,000 milestone, Bitcoin underperformed.
Research from NYDIG (New York Digital Investment Group) indicates that Bitcoin's high liquidity and 24/7 trading characteristics have caused it to act as a "cash machine (ATM)" for investors during times of panic, rather than a safe haven. This article delves into why, under the impact of current short-term policy shocks, Bitcoin has lost out to traditional gold in terms of its safe-haven properties.
The full text is as follows:
Bitcoin behaves more like an "ATM machine" during uncertain times, as investors quickly sell it to raise cash.
Key Points:
- Safe-haven disconnection: Amid recent geopolitical tensions, Bitcoin fell 6.6%, while gold rose 8.6%. This strongly demonstrates that Bitcoin remains highly vulnerable during periods of market stress.
- The "ATM machine" effect: During periods of uncertainty, Bitcoin behaves more like an "automated teller machine (ATM)"—investors quickly sell it to raise cash rapidly, which contradicts its reputation as a "stable digital asset."
- Misalignment of hedging properties: Gold remains the preferred hedge against short-term risks, while Bitcoin is better suited for long-term monetary risks and geopolitical uncertainties that span years rather than weeks.
In theory, Bitcoin should thrive during uncertain times because it is a censorship-resistant hard currency. In practice, however, it is becoming the first asset investors sell when situations turn critical.
Last week, as geopolitical tensions intensified—following Trump's threats to impose tariffs on NATO allies over the Greenland acquisition issue, and market speculation about potential military actions in the Arctic region—markets experienced a pullback, with volatility surging sharply.
Since January 18, when Trump first threatened to impose tariffs during his push to acquire Greenland,Bitcoin has depreciated by 6.6%, while gold has increased in value. 8.6%, reaching a new high close to $5,000.
The reason lies in how each asset integrates into a portfolio during periods of stress. Bitcoin's 24/7 trading, extremely deep liquidity, and instant settlement characteristics make it the easiest asset for investors to liquidate when they need to quickly raise cash.
According to Greg Cipolaro, Global Research Head at NYDIG, although gold is less accessible, it is often held rather than sold. This makes Bitcoin behave more like an "ATM machine" during times of panic, undermining its reputation as "digital gold."
"In times of stress and uncertainty, liquidity preference dominates, and this dynamic is far more damaging to Bitcoin than to gold," wrote Cipolaro.
"Although Bitcoin has liquidity in terms of its scale, it still maintains higher volatility and is reflexively sold off as leveraged positions are liquidated. Therefore, in risk-off environments, regardless of its long-term narrative, it is often used to raise cash, reduce value-at-risk (VaR), and de-risk portfolios, while gold continues to serve as true liquidity insurance," he added.
The performance of large holders (whales) also made no difference.
Central banks have been purchasing gold at record levels, creating strong structural demand. Meanwhile, according to a report by NYDIG, long-term Bitcoin holders are selling.
On-chain data shows that vintage coins (long-dormant tokens) are continuously flowing into exchanges, indicating a consistent selling pressure. This "seller overhang" suppresses price support. Cipolaro added, "The gold market, however, is showing the opposite dynamic. Large holders, especially central banks, continue to accumulate the metal."
Another reason for this mismatch is the way the market prices risk. The current turbulence is viewed as episodic, driven by tariffs, policy threats, and short-term shocks. For a long time, gold has been regarded as a tool to hedge against such uncertainties.
By contrast, Bitcoin is better suited to address long-term concerns, such as the devaluation of fiat currency or sovereign debt crises.
"Gold performs well during moments of immediate loss of confidence, war risks, and depreciation of fiat currencies without a full systemic collapse," added Cipolaro.
"By contrast, Bitcoin is better suited for hedging against long-term monetary and geopolitical disorder, as well as the slow erosion of trust that occurs over years rather than weeks. As long as markets perceive current risks as dangerous but not yet fundamental, gold will remain the preferred safe-haven asset."