Bitcoin Trend Model Turns Bearish; 76,088 USD Becomes Key Bull-Bear Line

ChainCatcher report, according to 10x Research analysis, Bitcoin’s trend model has just turned bearish. The current market faces multiple pressures: the “never sell” narrative is fracturing, as Michael Saylor hinted that his company may eventually sell a portion of its 843,000 BTC holdings—a shift that has triggered $2.7 billion in ETF outflows since May 7. Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $1 billion in May, with $2.7 billion concentrated in the past two weeks, indicating accelerating outflows. On the macro level, inflation remains a mispriced risk factor for most Bitcoin investors. Inflation exhibits a negative correlation with Bitcoin returns, and rising oil prices will continue to impact CPI data over the next 2 to 3 months. The bond market has fully priced in one Fed rate hike before year-end. In terms of market structure, Bitcoin volatility is at the 6th percentile historically, while Ethereum volatility is at the 1st percentile, with implied volatility near historical lows. Funding rates are near zero, open interest sits at the 44th percentile, and trading volume is at the 12th percentile—reflecting low confidence, low leverage, and low liquidity. Ethereum’s market cap share has fallen below 10% for the first time since July 2025, with Bitmine shareholders suffering $8 billion in losses due to their ETH bets. 10x Research notes that Bitcoin’s primary bull-bear divide lies at $76,088, and its current price sits just above this level. The core relative value position is long Bitcoin and short Ethereum. On the upside, analysis and surveys point to Hyperliquid and Zcash as key sources of upward momentum.