Foreign media: After Bitcoin retreated to around $60,000, on-chain transaction activity did not correspondingly decline. AMBCrypto, citing analyst insights, noted that the number of Bitcoin transactions over the 30-day moving average is nearing historical highs—a combination suggesting the market may be undergoing large-scale position transfers.
Number of trades approaches previous high
The article cites analyst Darkfost, who noted that Bitcoin’s 30-day moving average of transaction volume is approximately 640,000, nearing the high of 660,000 set during the correction period in September 2024. According to his observation, high transaction volumes are typically more common during strong upward phases or when the market approaches a阶段性 peak.
However, this time, the increase in transaction volume occurred alongside a price decline. The article suggests this resembles a concentrated transfer of holdings rather than a price rise driven by new buying pressure. Short-term holders have already been selling at a loss, and funds have continued to flow out of Bitcoin, indicating that market risk appetite remains weak.
Miner profit margins have significantly narrowed.
In addition to on-chain transaction data, mining operational pressures are increasing. The article states that over the past month, the cost of Bitcoin production has been approximately $43,000, while the spot price has declined from above $80,000 to near $60,000, causing miners' profit margins to drop from 98% to 47%.
Meanwhile, average daily hash rate declined by approximately 33% over three weeks. However, the 30-day moving average remains above the 60-day moving average, indicating that while hash rate has retreated, a longer-term trend reversal has not yet been confirmed.
Exchange inflows rise to over 10,000 coins
The volume of Bitcoin transferred by miners to exchanges has also increased significantly. The article notes that daily inflows have recently risen to 10,000 to 12,000 BTC, far above the typical range of 1,000 to 3,000 BTC, which is often seen as a signal of rising selling pressure.
Based on this analysis, the current market's chain reaction of selling may not yet be over, and a clear阶段性 bottom has not yet formed. Under conditions of extreme panic, if selling pressure continues to be released, the price of Bitcoin could still decline further toward $51,000.