ChainCatcher report: According to market data, Glassnode’s metrics show that Bitcoin traders’ realized profit/loss ratio (90-day moving average) has fallen below 1, indicating that investors are selling at a loss—a signal not seen since 2022. Historical data reveals that after this indicator drops below 1, it is typically followed by at least six months of realized losses and signals further price declines: during the 2022 bear market, Bitcoin fell 25% within six months after the indicator crossed below 1; in 2018, it dropped over 50% within five months. Glassnode notes that if history repeats, Bitcoin could “fully transition into an oversold realization phase,” with the downward trend potentially lasting more than five months. Based on the MVRV pricing range indicator, Bitcoin’s current extreme low zone is near $43,760—a level historically aligned with bear market bottoms and within the $40,000–$50,000 potential support range predicted by multiple analysts.
Bitcoin Trader Loss Signal Emerges, Price May Fall Below $44,000
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Summary
Today’s Bitcoin price shows a new loss signal, with Glassnode data revealing that the 90-day realized profit and loss ratio has fallen below 1. This is the first time since 2022 that investors are selling at a loss. Historical trends suggest this could lead to a prolonged downturn, with Bitcoin price prediction models indicating a potential decline below $44,000. The MVRV indicator identifies $43,760 as a key support level, consistent with previous bear market lows.
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