Bitcoin Tests $78,000 Support Amid Rising U.S. Bond Yields and Inflation

Author: Gino Matos

DeepOcean TechFlow

DeepInsight Summary: After failing to break above $82,000, Bitcoin has declined for two consecutive days, falling into the $78,000 support zone. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is nearing 4.6%, while the 30-year yield has surpassed 5.13%. Combined with April’s CPI accelerating to 3.8% and oil prices rising above $105, the macroeconomic environment is highly unfavorable for risk assets. ETF fund flows have also turned net negative at a critical juncture. Will $78,000 hold? If not, the next target is $75,000.

Bitcoin touched a intraday low of $77,711 before slightly rebounding to around $78,225. This marks the second consecutive trading day of macroeconomic pressure.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.599%, and the 30-year yield increased by 11.8 basis points to 5.131%, reaching a new high since May 2025. BTC fell 3.9% from its opening price above $81,000 on May 15, while U.S. stocks and bonds also weakened during the same period.

When BTC fell below $82,000, the $77,700–$78,000 range became the next line of support. Now, this support is bearing the full weight of macroeconomic pressure.

Caption: Bitcoin dropped from an opening price above $81,000 on May 15 to an intraday low of $77,711, then rebounded to $78,225 and is currently testing the $77,700–$78,000 support zone.

BTC is a non-yielding asset, and now it must compete with U.S. Treasuries offering yields of 4.5% to 5.1%. With interest rates elevated to this level, the opportunity cost of holding BTC has risen sharply.

K33 data shows that the 30-day correlation between Bitcoin and Nasdaq futures has exceeded 0.7. During sharp declines in the Nasdaq, Bitcoin’s beta tends to amplify. Both transmission channels were active during this sell-off, while the macro environment left the Fed with little room for easing.

The April CPI increased year-over-year to 3.8%, up from 3.3% in March. Core CPI remained at 2.8%, and the energy component rose 17.9% over the past 12 months.

WTI crude oil closed at $105.42 on May 15, up 4.2% for the day and 11.33% for the month. Brent crude reached $109.26, rising 3.35%. The Trading Economics model forecasts Brent to reach $111.28 by quarter-end, while HSBC has raised its 2026 Brent price forecast to an average of $95, which could rise to $110 if supply agreements are delayed until late summer.

May data from the University of Michigan showed that one-year inflation expectations rose to 4.5%. The Fed’s April FOMC statement indicated it would first assess inflation before considering easing. The threshold for policy relief remains high.

CoinShares data shows that, for the week ending May 11, Bitcoin investment products attracted $706.1 million in net inflows, with strong institutional demand continuing.

However, daily data from Farside Investors shows a sharp reversal in capital flows since then: a net outflow of $630.4 million on May 13, a modest inflow of $131.3 million on the 14th, and another outflow of $290.4 million on the 15th.

Two out of three days saw outflows. The ETF’s cash buffer, which previously absorbed macro headwinds over the past few weeks, vanished just when it was most needed to defend the $78,000 support level.

The intraday low of $77,716.09 has fallen within the support range. If the daily close can reclaim above $78,000, this pullback remains technically manageable.

Once $77,700 is effectively broken, the downside path opens: $76,500 is the first follow-through target, and after bearish confirmation of the breakdown, $75,000 is the key psychological level where historical bottom-fishing capital must commit real funds.

If the price continues to move lower, the $73,000–$74,000 range will come into view. At that level, the market narrative must shift from "correction" to "macro-driven deleveraging of risk assets."

Reclaiming $80,000 is the first step toward reversing the bearish momentum—a daily close at that level would break the sequence of lower lows over the past two trading days, giving bulls a clean technical reset.

The next key resistance is at $82,000. On May 13, BTC broke below the 200-day moving average (around $82,000), meaning $82,000 serves as both a psychological resistance level and a technical barrier. A daily close above $82,000 would invalidate the false breakdown below $78,000.

If the 10-year yield falls below 4.50%, oil prices cool down from above $105, and ETF fund flows turn positive, Bitcoin could reclaim $80,000. This would break the pattern of lower lows over the past two days, paving the way for a retest of $82,000—the 200-day moving average level that BTC broke on May 13.

The daily candle closing above 82,000 turns the yield-driven pullback into a false breakdown, opening up space toward the $80,000 higher range. The decline over the past week will later be viewed as a washout pullback, with the underlying accumulation logic intact.

Conversely, if BTC closes below 77,700 on the daily chart, while U.S. Treasury yields remain near 4.60% and ETFs continue to see outflows, the support test is confirmed as failed. The first downside target is 76,500; once bears confirm the breakdown, a new leg lower begins. At 75,000—the key psychological level—historical bottom-fishing capital must demonstrate genuine buying strength.

If it continues to weaken below 75,000, the next target range is 74,000–73,000. At that level, the narrative will no longer be about a "crypto market correction," but rather a "cross-asset macro deleveraging"—where equities and bonds are also being repriced, and BTC is simply following along.

The macro variables determining Bitcoin’s short-term direction need to stabilize first before a rebound anchor can form. With the 10-year yield at 4.599% and the 30-year yield at 5.131%, bondholders are offered a yield floor of 4.5%–5.1%. BTC, as a zero-coupon asset, is inherently at a disadvantage in terms of yield differential. One-year inflation expectations stand at 4.5%, and the Fed remains in an “assessment phase,” with rapid easing still far from market pricing.

The $78,000 range faces a structural test: whether ETF buyers and long-term holders can absorb selling pressure quickly enough to stabilize the price before the support level is broken, amid the impact of interest rate costs.