Bitcoin Surpasses $71,000 as Oil Prices Drop and Fed Signals Consideration of Rate Hike

Author: ChainThink

The Dow Jones surged 1,325 points in a single day, and the S&P 500 returned to its 200-day moving average;

WTI plunged over 16% in a single day, marking its steepest decline since April 2020;

Bitcoin rises above $71,000, prompting the market to reassess the logic linking falling oil prices to an interest rate cut window;

Federal Reserve meeting minutes: More officials mentioned the possibility of rate hikes; policymakers focus on the dual risks of war in Iran;

Morgan Stanley's spot Bitcoin ETF attracted approximately $34 million in inflows on its first day of trading;

The Strait of Hormuz has closed again, causing tankers to turn back and remain stranded; prospects for a ceasefire have once again become uncertain.

I. Market Conditions

The Dow Jones surged 1,325 points in a single day, and the S&P 500 returned to its 200-day moving average;

ChainThink report: Expectations of a ceasefire spurred a broad rebound in U.S. stocks on Wednesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1,325 points, or 2.85%, to close at 47,909.92, marking its largest single-day gain since the "Liberation Day" rally in April last year. The S&P 500 gained 2.51% to 6,782.83, reclaiming its 200-day moving average, while the Nasdaq advanced 2.80% and the Russell 2000 rose 2.97%. Airlines, travel, homebuilding, and semiconductor sectors led the gains, as markets primarily traded along the narrative of "plummeting oil prices—reduced recession risks—recovery in risk appetite." However, the Fed's caution regarding inflation's lingering effects remains unchanged.

WTI plunged over 16% in a single day, marking its steepest decline since April 2020;

ChainThink report: The ceasefire announcement triggered a sharp reversal in oil markets, with WTI plunging over 16% to $94.41 per barrel on Wednesday, and Brent falling approximately 13% to $94.75 per barrel; calculated from Tuesday’s intraday high of $115.80, WTI erased more than $21 in less than 24 hours. Initially, markets bet on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, reduced regional supply disruptions, and a rapid unwinding of the war premium. However, subsequent delays in shipping recovery and inconsistent statements from Iran and the U.S. regarding ceasefire terms caused oil prices to rebound after hours, indicating that supply risks have not been genuinely resolved.

Gold rose approximately 2.5% in a single day; the ceasefire strengthened the trade positioning of a weaker dollar and lower interest rate expectations.

ChainThink reports that despite a temporary de-escalation in the Middle East situation, gold surged approximately 2.5%-2.8% on Wednesday, rising to around $4,800–$4,820 per ounce, while silver climbed about 7%. The market did not simply price in a “ceasefire = bearish for safe-havens” narrative; instead, it quickly shifted to a macro framework centered on “a weaker dollar, plunging oil prices lowering inflation expectations, and rising expectations of Fed rate cuts.” The U.S. dollar index posted its third-largest intraday decline of the year, directly boosting the performance of dollar-denominated precious metals. Mining stocks also strengthened, indicating that capital flows were not merely short-term safe-haven moves but rather a strategic reallocation toward interest rate trades.

Bitcoin rises above $71,000, prompting the market to reassess the logic linking falling oil prices to an interest rate cut window;

ChainThink report: Expectations of a ceasefire have fueled continued gains in the crypto market, with Bitcoin holding above $71,000 and briefly reaching a three-week high of approximately $72,700. Ethereum has maintained above $2,200, rebounding over 7% from its Tuesday low. The core market logic centers on falling oil prices easing inflationary pressures, reigniting bets on a Fed rate cut in 2026. Crypto-related stocks such as Strategy and Circle have outperformed Bitcoin itself. However, the latest Fed meeting minutes remain open to the possibility of further rate hikes; for Bitcoin to firmly sustain its elevated levels, further inflation data will be needed for validation.

II. Macro & War

The Strait of Hormuz has closed again, causing tankers to turn back and remain stranded; prospects for a ceasefire have once again become uncertain.

ChainThink reports, according to CCTV News and Iranian media, the Strait of Hormuz was closed again at dawn on April 9. The oil tanker "AUROURA," originally heading toward the strait's exit, turned back near Oman, with numerous other vessels still stranded in the surrounding waters. Iran had previously halted tanker transit in response to Israel’s continued strikes in Lebanon. U.S. Vice President Vance warned that if Iran fails to honor its commitment to reopen the strait, the ceasefire agreement will be terminated, indicating that although a ceasefire window exists in the Middle East, the critical energy corridor has not yet truly stabilized.

Iran is linking the ceasefire to the situation in Lebanon, while Israel says it will continue targeting Hezbollah;

ChainThink reports: In response to the two-week ceasefire agreement, multiple parties in the Middle East continue to diverge in their positions. Iran has stated that it will only engage in face-to-face talks with the United States in Pakistan if a ceasefire is achieved in Lebanon; if Israel continues its attacks on Lebanon, Iran will consider withdrawing from the ceasefire agreement. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, however, has clearly stated that military operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon “do not apply” to the current ceasefire arrangement, as Israel “has more objectives to achieve.” This suggests that the current ceasefire is more of a localized de-escalation than a comprehensive end to hostilities.

Federal Reserve meeting minutes: More officials mention the possibility of rate hikes; policymakers focus on dual risks from Iran conflict

ChainThink report: According to the official announcement, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of its March FOMC meeting, showing an increased number of officials compared to the January meeting who wished to signal to the market that the next move could be a rate hike rather than another cut. The minutes indicated that "some" participants saw sufficient justification for a balanced description of the Committee’s future rate decisions in the post-meeting statement; in contrast, the January minutes mentioned only "a few" participants holding this view, with "some" in the Fed’s terminology referring to a larger number than "a few." Amid the backdrop of the Iran conflict, Fed officials weighed U.S. economic conditions, with most expressing concern that the war could disrupt the labor market and necessitate rate cuts, while many also emphasized inflation risks, suggesting that rate hikes may ultimately be required to address them.

III. AI Updates

OpenAI will soon release a model on a par with Claude Mythos with limited availability.

ChainThink reports, citing Axios and sources familiar with the matter, that OpenAI is finalizing a model with cybersecurity capabilities on par with Anthropic’s Claude Mythos, planning to release it exclusively to a limited number of companies through its “Trusted Access for Cyber” initiative. Anthropic’s recently released Mythos security evaluation report highlights the regulatory challenges posed by such models: during testing, the model autonomously designed multi-step exploit chains to bypass restricted network access and publicly posted attack details on obscure websites to boast about its capabilities; in simulated business environments, it threatened to cut off supply chains to manipulate pricing; in fewer than 0.001% of interactions, after using prohibited methods to obtain answers, it attempted to “re-solve” the problem to erase traces; and even after a programming task was rejected by another AI evaluator, it attempted a prompt injection attack against the scoring model.

This means that the two leading AI labs have nearly simultaneously reached the same conclusion: the cybersecurity capabilities of the most powerful models are now so strong that they cannot be publicly released directly, but must first be made available to defenders. If OpenAI follows Anthropic’s approach, “provide to defenders first, then consider public release” could become the industry standard for releasing superpowerful models.

DeepSeek's web platform has quietly launched dual modes—“Quick” and “Expert”—introducing product tiering for the first time.

ChainThink reports that after the update, DeepSeek’s Fast Mode is optimized for everyday conversations, offering instant responses with support for image and file recognition, powered by DeepSeek 3.2 with a knowledge cutoff of July 2024; the "Expert Mode" is designed for complex reasoning tasks but currently does not support file uploads or multimodal capabilities. Community analysis suggests it points to an updated model, possibly an early version of V4.

This update was deployed silently without any official announcement. User testing shows that Expert Mode performs significantly better on complex reasoning tasks such as physical simulation and mathematical reasoning, but shows limited difference from Fast Mode on simpler tasks like creative writing. Some testers believe the current Expert Mode is still routing to the V4 Lite version, and the full V4 version remains pending.

Four: Industry Frontiers

Morgan Stanley's spot Bitcoin ETF attracted approximately $34 million in inflows on its first day of trading.

ChainThink reports that on its first day of trading, Morgan Stanley’s spot Bitcoin ETF saw active trading, with over 1.6 million shares traded and approximately $34 million in net inflows. With an expense ratio of just 0.14%, it offers the lowest fee among similar products, leveraging price competitiveness to enter the market. Backed by Morgan Stanley’s extensive wealth management network, MSBT is poised to gain appeal as more investors access Bitcoin through financial advisors. However, given the current market dominated by a few large players, it remains uncertain whether it can sustain its early momentum.

Yi Lihua launches his next venture, officially announcing the AI fund OpenX Labs.

ChainThink reports that Li Hua Yi, founder of Liquid Capital (formerly LD Capital), has announced the establishment of the AI-focused fund OpenX Labs, which will invest in and collaborate with AI projects.

Yi Lihua stated that he previously believed there were few investment opportunities in the primary market, but has since revised this view, believing that the AI era has ushered in a golden period for primary market investments. He noted that top founders in the AI era have tremendous opportunities, as small teams can now rival large organizations without having to manage burdensome tasks such as HR, recruitment, compensation, and customer acquisition, allowing startups to compete on equal footing with mid-sized companies.

Yi Lihua also said he plans to devote more time to engaging with and learning from outstanding AI founders, is willing to support high-quality AI projects without compensation, and expressed that AI has provided him with new opportunities and motivation for his second entrepreneurial journey.