Glassnode says the push toward $96,000 was driven by leverage, while CryptoQuant warns demand remains too weak to confirm a trend reversal.
What to know:
- Bitcoin fell about 3 percent to around $92,500 as a derivatives-driven rally faded, triggering roughly $600 million in long liquidations and hitting major altcoins hard.
- On-chain data from Glassnode and CryptoQuant suggest the recent advance toward $96,000 was fueled largely by thin derivatives flows rather than robust spot demand, with long-term holder supply and the 365-day moving average near $101,000 acting as key resistance.
- While selling by long-term holders has slowed and spot buying on major exchanges is stabilizing, analysts say bitcoin remains highly sensitive to leverage and liquidity shifts, keeping the market vulnerable to sharp reversals.
Bitcoin is in the red as Asia begins its trading week, falling about 3% to trade near $92,500 as a derivatives-driven rally lost momentum.
The move underscores the market’s fragile footing despite signs that late-2025 sell pressure is beginning to ease.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency is retreating from a recent push toward the mid-$90,000s. CoinGlass data showed more than $680 million in crypto positions were liquidated over the past 24 hours, with roughly $600 million coming from long positions, a sign that bullish positioning had become crowded following the rally.
Alts were hit hard during Asia's Monday morning trading, with SOL down 6.7%, SUI down 10%, and ZCash down 10%. Elsewhere, gold continued its climb, up 1.7% to $4600 amid a new 10% tariff on Denmark and seven other European countries until “a deal is reached for the complete and total purchase of Greenland.”
Thin liquidity
According to Glassnode's weekly report, bitcoin’s advance toward $96,000 was largely "mechanically" driven by derivatives flows, including short liquidations, rather than by sustained spot accumulation.
The on-chain analytics firm noted that futures liquidity remains relatively thin, leaving price action vulnerable to sharp reversals once forced buying pressure fades. Glassnode also pointed to a crowded supply zone formed by long-term holders who accumulated near cycle highs, an area that has repeatedly capped recent rebounds.
Bear market rally?
CryptoQuant struck a more cautious tone in its latest weekly report, characterizing the move since late November as a potential bear market rally rather than the start of a new uptrend. In the report, the firm noted that bitcoin remains below its 365-day moving average near $101,000, a level that has historically acted as a "regime boundary."
While demand conditions have improved at the margin, CryptoQuant said they have not changed materially, with apparent spot demand still contracting and U.S. spot ETF inflows remaining modest.
There are, however, signs of stabilization. Glassnode observed that long-term holder distribution has slowed significantly compared with late 2025, while spot flows on major exchanges have turned more dominant with buyers, while Coinbase-led selling has eased.
Options markets reflect the uncertainty. Glassnode noted that implied volatility remains low, but downside protection is still priced into longer-dated contracts, suggesting investors remain cautious.
Until sustained spot demand re-emerges, both firms say bitcoin is likely to remain sensitive to leverage and liquidity shifts, keeping investors on edge.