BlockBeats news, on June 22, crypto market analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that on-chain data shows the Bitcoin market is developing a supply structure similar to that of a cycle bottom, but a key surrender indicator has yet to confirm that a bottom has been formed.
The realized supply held by long-term holders is rising. This metric measures the total realized supply entering the long-term holder group and has historically surged rapidly near cycle bottoms. Currently, this indicator stands at approximately 12.17 million, having reached a local peak of 12.42 million in early June. Although it has slightly retraced since then, it remains strongly elevated year-over-year. Over the past year, this metric has more than doubled, indicating that an increasing amount of supply is shifting from short-term traders to more stable long-term holders.
This shift is generally seen as a sign of increased market resilience. An increase in the supply held by long-term holders indicates that more Bitcoin is exiting active circulation, potentially reducing selling pressure and signaling that the market is undergoing consolidation.
However, the issue is that this metric has not yet reached levels near previous bear market bottoms. At the 2015 bottom, the long-term holder realized supply was approximately 15 million; at the 2018–19 bottom, it was around 16 million; and at the 2022–23 bottom, it approached 19.7 million. In comparison, the current level of 12.17 million, while moving in the right direction, still falls short of the historical bottom confirmation range.
Greater divergence comes from the selling pressure indicator. This indicator only activates when the overall market is in a loss state—that is, when NUPL is negative—and measures realized loss pressure by the degree to which SOPR deviates from 1. In other words, it captures the moment when the market truly enters a phase of pressure release, loss-driven selling, and capitulation.
This indicator has not generated a signal for 1,256 days—the longest silent period in Bitcoin’s history. The last signal occurred on January 13, 2023, near the end of the previous bear market. In previous cycle bottoms, including those in 2015, 2018–19, 2020, and 2022, dense selling pressure signals were common, with peaks typically ranging between 15% and nearly 32%. During the cycle bottom in December 2018, this indicator reached a historical high of approximately 32%.
Therefore, the current market exhibits an incomplete bottom structure: supply is maturing, long-term holders are absorbing筹码, but the surrender side has not provided confirmation. The market appears more like it is in a phase of holding, sedimentation, and筹码reallocation, rather than having completed the classic cycle bottom with final pressure release.
In conclusion, Bitcoin does exhibit some characteristics of a base formation, but it still lacks the most critical element from historical cycles: the final capitulation signal driven by loss-driven selling. Stronger confirmation may require one of two conditions: either the realized supply of long-term holders rises further above 15 million BTC, or the selling pressure indicator reactivates, signaling genuine market relief.