Bitcoin exhibits a "bottom expectation" structure as chain indicators suggest market panic is easing.

ChainCatcher report: On-chain analyst Murphy posted that BTC fell below the $60,000 psychological level yesterday, but market losses and sentiment indicators did not worsen in tandem. The 3-day average of the adjusted realized loss (EARL) is currently $1.13 billion, nearly halved compared to the figure on February 5. He believes this does not mean BTC won’t continue to decline, but the fact that EARL has not risen further despite lower prices represents a classic structure indicative of “bottoming expectations.” If EARL reflects market panic, STH-RUL (Short-Term Holder Relative Unrealized Loss) measures the psychological pressure on new entrants. During bear market declines, short-term holders typically experience a severe psychological stress threshold, with STH-RUL exceeding +5 standard deviations—corresponding to a systemic crisis. Afterward, even if prices fall further, STH-RUL rarely surpasses its prior peak, as positions have already rotated at high loss levels, lowering new buyers’ cost basis and absorbing market pressure. Murphy notes that EARL and STH-RUL are currently sending consistent signals: market panic is being absorbed, not spreading. Although prices are making new lows, loss indicators are not simultaneously reaching new highs—this is not a sufficient condition for a bottom, but historically, true bottoms almost always exhibit this characteristic. Bottoming is a process of repeated pressure and absorption, until holdings complete rotation amid panic and new buyers’ cost bases become sufficiently low, at which point the price gradually loses downward momentum.