Foreign media, citing analyst opinions, noted that Bitcoin’s Sell-Side Risk Ratio has declined to a low-risk zone near 1%. Historically, this level typically corresponds to weakening selling pressure and the market entering an accumulation phase, but it does not confirm that the price has bottomed out.
The indicator has returned to the low-risk zone.
The Sell-Side Risk Ratio measures the change in realized profits and losses relative to realized market value, reflecting the intensity with which holders are realizing profits or cutting losses. An increase in the indicator typically suggests that holders are more willing to sell as prices rise; a decline indicates reduced profit-taking and stop-loss activity.
The article states that the indicator has now moved back close to the 1% level on the logarithmic scale, falling within a range historically regarded as an "accumulation zone." The reasoning is that when the amount of holdings willing to be sold decreases, new selling pressure in the market also declines.
Has historically appeared multiple times before rebounds
Analyst RugaResearch noted that similar readings occurred at the end of 2016, early 2019, March 2020, the end of 2022, and the end of 2023. Following these instances, markets have largely entered clear recovery phases or further expanded into longer-term uptrends.
The article argues that the commonality among such signals is not heightened sentiment, but rather a gradual exhaustion of selling pressure. In other words, the market typically experiences a decline in selling pressure before demand begins to recover.
MVRV and NUPL both weaken in tandem
In addition to the Sell-Side Risk Ratio, the article mentions two other common valuation metrics that are also approaching the lower end of their ranges.
- The MVRV is continuing to converge toward the realized price.
- NUPL remains near the surrender zone.
The article notes that multiple long-term valuation metrics simultaneously entering statistically low territory is uncommon historically, typically indicating that market pricing has cooled significantly.
However, the article also notes that this does not prove Bitcoin has found its exact bottom, as further declines remain possible. The key point is that historical accumulation zones often do not coincide with optimism but instead emerge when market sentiment is lukewarm,分歧 increases, and selling pressure declines.