Foreign media report that market分歧 over whether Bitcoin will reach another阶段性 low this year continues to widen. Short-term views generally hold that the rebound since March is not yet fully complete; however, when extending the observation period to the remainder of the year, some analysts still maintain the view that a pullback may occur first, followed by a new upward phase.
Long-term holder indicator declines
The report notes that the 1Y+ Long Term Holder metric, monitored by analyst CryptoZeno, has retreated into the "oversold" accumulation zone. This metric reflects the behavior of long-term holders who have held their coins for over a year, and historically, this zone has appeared prior to major price rallies in 2013, 2016, 2019, and late 2022.
The article suggests that such signals typically indicate that short-term positions in the market have been largely liquidated, allowing long-term capital to regain dominance. However, over the past several cycles, it has often taken several months from when the indicator enters a similar range until the price actually begins to rise, during which Bitcoin’s price may continue to decline before forming a阶段性 low point.
The four-year cycle is still frequently mentioned.
The report links this change to Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle. Historically, halving cycles and U.S. presidential election years have been regarded as key contextual factors influencing market timing. If this cycle follows a similar pattern, the long-term holder indicators may continue to decline for some time before prices bottom out and enter a new upward phase.
However, the article notes that this cycle is not entirely identical to previous ones. In earlier bear markets, relevant indicators typically plummeted rapidly; in this cycle, although the decline has been significant, the pace has been more gradual, without a sudden, sharp drop. The report suggests this is more a matter of timing rather than a structural deviation, as the current magnitude of decline remains comparable to historical ranges.
Short-term strength coexists with medium-term caution.
Over the coming weeks, the market remains bias toward optimism. The article notes that some analysts believe the rally that began in March could extend into June, despite short-term volatility and the market appearing to be trapped in a directionless consolidation range.
The report also noted that Bitcoin’s price this week appeared slightly below the reasonable range indicated by some models, and significant whale buying has already emerged. However, from a shorter-term perspective, the market has not yet provided clear signs of a rebound, so short-term optimism is largely based on capital behavior and cyclical experience rather than a definitive trend breakout.
Disagreements still remain in the second half of the year.
Looking ahead to the coming months, the article suggests the situation will become more complex. Some views align with CryptoZeno’s assessment that long-term holder indicators may continue to decline, followed by further price corrections in Bitcoin. If historical cycles repeat, the market is more likely to be in an accumulation phase rather than a sustained upward trend from now until year-end.
Within this framework, the behavioral differences between whales and retail investors have once again become a key focus of observation. The article notes that, over longer timeframes, it is common for retail investors to continuously sell near lows, while large holders gradually accumulate; after a trend reversal, retail investors then chase prices higher to cover their positions, while large holders realize profits at higher levels.
Additional information: The report also noted that the main accumulation range for these whales was below $70,000, and as the price rose above $80,000, some large holders began reducing their positions to lock in profits, making the rhythm of this cycle more complex than previous ones.