BlockBeats news, June 8: Following last week’s sharp sell-off, a key on-chain metric for Bitcoin—the MVRV Z-Score—is approaching historical bear market lows, indicating that the market price is gradually converging with the on-chain realized value, suggesting the worst of the decline may be nearing its end.
Data shows that Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score is currently at 0.24, near the zero line, which has historically been regarded as the “green accumulation zone.” In past bear markets during 2011–2012, 2014, 2018, and 2022, this indicator bottomed out near or briefly below zero before initiating a new upward cycle.
The MVRV Z-Score measures the deviation between Bitcoin’s current market capitalization and its realized value. When the market price is significantly higher than the realized value, it indicates that Bitcoin is relatively expensive; conversely, when the price is close to or below the realized value, it suggests the market is in an undervalued region.
However, analysts believe the market may not yet have formed an absolute bottom. On-chain data shows that the short-term holder MVRV (STH-MVRV) is currently at 0.84, while the long-term holder MVRV (LTH-MVRV) remains high at 1.29, and the two have not yet converged as they did at the bear market bottoms of 2015, 2019, and 2022.
This means that long-term holders still hold significant unrealized profits, and the market may need further adjustment before forming a typical bear market bottom. However, after the cryptocurrency market lost hundreds of billions in market capitalization last week, several historical indicators signaling market recovery have begun to emerge.