ME News reports that on May 10 (UTC+8), crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that although Bitcoin rebounded after dropping from approximately $125,000 to $60,000, the current price movement remains a “recovery after a decline” and has not yet confirmed the start of a new bull cycle. He noted that, based on on-chain data, several key indicators have not yet entered the historical ranges typically associated with bear market bottoms—including the percentage of unprofitable supply and 90-day UTXO metrics—which still fail to show sufficient cyclical bottoming structure. Additionally, the Long-Term Holder Realized Supply has not exhibited the classic accumulation pattern seen at the end of previous bear markets, indicating the market has not yet entered a deep reallocation phase. Furthermore, spot selling pressure indicators have not shown clear signs of “capitulation,” suggesting that the typical comprehensive market liquidation has not yet occurred during this downturn. Axel Adler Jr. believes that, prior to synchronized improvements in on-chain structure, spot demand, and supply pressure, the current rally is more likely a technical rebound rather than a trend reversal. On the macro level, he noted that global risk sentiment remains tight. The conflict between the U.S. and Iran has pushed Brent crude oil prices close to $100 per barrel, reigniting inflationary pressures; consumer confidence and financial health indices have weakened, signaling downward pressure on demand. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields remain elevated, with both real interest rates and inflation expectations rising, further pressuring risk asset valuations. He also mentioned that the Federal Reserve’s leadership is approaching a potential transition, but the rate markets no longer price in rapid rate cuts—instead, they are now beginning to factor in the possibility of rate hikes, signaling a clear shift in market expectations toward “higher for longer” rates. Amid high oil prices, elevated interest rates, and uncertain monetary policy, overall financial conditions remain constrained. Axel Adler Jr. stated that the market needs to wait for clearer on-chain bottoming structures and signs of demand-side recovery before taking a more optimistic stance; until then, he maintains a cautious outlook. (Source: ODAILY)
Bitcoin's recovery is viewed as a post-drop rally, not a new bull cycle.
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Summary
Bitcoin’s rebound from $60,000 is being interpreted as a market rally rather than the beginning of a new bull cycle, according to on-chain data from MetaEra. Analyst Axel Adler Jr. noted that key metrics such as the loss-making supply ratio and 90-day UTXO have not reached historical bear market lows. Long-term holder realized supply also shows no signs of accumulation. Spot selling pressure remains strong, with no clear capitulation. On-chain data indicates the market has not yet fully cleared. Rising oil prices, inflation, and high U.S. bond yields are further increasing the risk environment. The Fed’s potential leadership shift has not triggered expectations of rate cuts. Until clearer on-chain signals and demand recovery emerge, Adler remains cautious.
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