Bitcoin's Price Could Drop to $70,000 If Fed Doesn't Cut Rates in Q1 2026

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Bitcoin price today could fall to $70,000 if the Fed delays rate cuts into Q1 2026, according to BitcoinSistemi. Ethereum may drop to $2,400 under the same scenario. BTSE’s Jeff Mei pointed to the RMP program’s $40 billion monthly Treasury bond purchases as a potential liquidity boost. However, a hawkish Fed could trigger a sharp crypto sell-off. The January, March, and May FOMC meetings will be key, with rate cuts possibly pushing Bitcoin price today to $92,000–$98,000 and Ethereum to $3,600. Altcoins to watch may also see volatility depending on Fed policy.

Citing BitcoinSistemi, analysts predict that if the Federal Reserve does not cut interest rates in the first quarter of 2026, Bitcoin could fall to $70,000 and Ethereum to $2,400. BTSE COO Jeff Mei noted that the Fed's Reserve Management Purchases (RMP) program, which involves monthly purchases of $40 billion in short-term Treasury bonds, could provide market liquidity and support risky assets. However, if the Fed maintains a hawkish stance, it could trigger a sharp correction in crypto prices. Mei also highlighted that the January, March, and May FOMC meetings will be critical for the market, with potential rate cuts possibly pushing Bitcoin to $92,000–$98,000 and Ethereum to $3,600.

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