Huoxing Finance reports that, following last week’s sharp sell-off, Bitcoin’s key on-chain metric—the MVRV Z-Score—is approaching historical bear market lows, indicating that the current market price is gradually converging with the on-chain realized value, suggesting the worst of the decline may be nearing its end. Data shows that Bitcoin’s current MVRV Z-Score stands at 0.24, near the zero line, which has historically been regarded as the “green accumulation zone.” During previous bear markets in 2011–2012, 2014, 2018, and 2022, this indicator bottomed out near or slightly below zero before initiating a new upward cycle. The MVRV Z-Score measures the deviation between Bitcoin’s current market capitalization and its realized value. When the market price significantly exceeds the realized value, Bitcoin is considered relatively overvalued; conversely, when the price approaches or falls below the realized value, the market is deemed undervalued. However, analysts believe the market may not yet have formed an absolute bottom. On-chain data shows that the Short-Term Holder MVRV (STH-MVRV) is currently at 0.84, while the Long-Term Holder MVRV (LTH-MVRV) remains high at 1.29—neither has converged as they did at the bottoms of the 2015, 2019, and 2022 bear markets. This suggests that long-term holders still hold substantial unrealized profits, and the market may require further adjustment before forming a classic bear market bottom. Nevertheless, after last week’s cryptocurrency market lost hundreds of billions in market capitalization, several historical indicators signaling market recovery have begun to emerge.
Bitcoin's MVRV Z-Score Approaches Historical Low, Suggesting the Worst May Be Behind Us
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Summary
Bitcoin analysis shows the MVRV Z-Score has dropped to 0.24, nearing the historical accumulation zone near zero. This level has occurred at past bear market bottoms in 2011–2012, 2014, 2018, and 2022. The metric reflects the difference between market value and realized value, with lower readings indicating undervaluation. Bitcoin news reports that LTH-MVRV is at 1.29, while STH-MVRV is at 0.84, showing no convergence as seen in previous cycles.
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