Odaily Planet Daily reports: Data from the market platform Deribit shows that as Bitcoin continued to decline throughout June, the options market expiring this month has become significantly imbalanced, with approximately $8.6 billion notional value of BTC options out-of-the-money (OTM) and at risk of expiring worthless.
Data shows that of the approximately $10.6 billion in open interest for options expiring on June 26, only about 20% are in-the-money (ITM), while the remaining 80% are currently unprofitable. Analysis suggests that this structural imbalance may trigger concentrated hedging adjustments by market makers and traders before expiration, amplifying short-term market volatility.
The current market maximum pain price is approximately $74,000, about 14% above Bitcoin’s current price of around $65,000. Theoretically, this level represents the price at which the most options contracts would expire worthless, potentially creating an upward price pressure as expiration approaches. However, the effectiveness of this mechanism in the crypto market remains debated.
Additionally, the bullish and bearish structures in the options market are relatively balanced, with a Put/Call ratio of approximately 0.87, indicating increased market sentiment divergence. Around $450 million in open interest is concentrated at the $60,000 put options, while $80,000 call options have formed a key resistance level of approximately $406 million.
Analysts believe that as quarterly expirations approach, concentrated exercise and hedging adjustments may become key drivers of short-term price volatility, potentially leading to a more pronounced directional breakout for Bitcoin. (CoinDesk)