After Bitcoin retraced to the $60,000–$62,000 range, on-chain profit margins have significantly contracted, and unrealized losses have rapidly expanded. Foreign media analysis indicates that approximately 10.46 million BTC are currently in an unrealized loss position, a level that has historically occurred near key cycle lows.
Unrealized losses have risen to a sensitive zone.
The article notes that when a large volume of Bitcoin holdings turn unprofitable, many investors tend to reduce their willingness to sell, thereby weakening market selling pressure. In previous market cycles, when more than 10 million BTC were trading at a loss, the market typically had already entered a phase of significantly compressed valuation.
However, this signal does not confirm that the bottom has been reached. If buying pressure can absorb these unrealized losses, the market may gradually enter a consolidation phase; if demand remains insufficient, prices could still decline further.
MVRV decreased to 1.1
The MVRV metric, used to measure market valuation, has now dropped to 1.1, indicating that Bitcoin’s total market capitalization is only slightly above the average on-chain holding cost. The article suggests that most of the speculative premium accumulated during the prior rally has been absorbed in this correction.
According to the analysis, if the price declines further toward the low $50,000s, the MVRV could approach 1.0. This level has rarely been seen historically and typically occurs only near major cycle lows.
Long-term holders resume net accumulation
On-chain data also shows that the net position of long-term holders has turned positive again. Over the past 30 days, this group absorbed approximately 30,000 to 35,000 BTC, ending a period of prolonged volatility that lasted several months.
The article suggests that some long-term capital has begun to increase positions during the pullback, with market holdings slowly shifting away from short-term participants. However, the current pace of accumulation remains moderate and has not yet shown signs of aggressive buying.
Overall, on-chain valuation and holding structures are moving toward historical low levels, but whether the market has truly completed its bottoming process still depends on whether broader capital begins to flow back in.