Dr. Andy Cheung, founder of the Hong Kong crypto quantitative fund Zeuspace and a key investor in a UK-compliant gold exchange, gave a straightforward recommendation during a recent internal closed-door session, emphasizing three things: "Control leverage, control frequency, control expectations."

From the Fed to the Middle East: Why Is Macro Analysis Harder This Time?

(1) Stronger inflation expectations: Although stronger dollar and interest rate expectations should typically suppress risk assets, Bitcoin rose alongside a pullback in gold, driven more by portfolio rebalancing than by traditional safe-haven or inflation-hedging behavior.

(2) Escalation of geopolitical tensions: Although gold should continue to rise, at critical moments, you may observe gold rallying before retracing, as some profit-taking occurs; this liquidity then flows back into the crypto market, creating a seemingly counterintuitive price movement.

Whether it’s the situation in the Middle East or Japan’s interest rate hike, both may trigger short-term sentiment shocks; however, whether these evolve into systemic opportunities depends on capital and liquidity fundamentals, not just headline news.

The New Market Maker Era Under Liquidity Contraction: The Three-Way博弈 Among Exchanges, Hedge Funds, and Regulators

In this cycle, the real change isn't just price—it's the entire market structure.

(1) The primary market is essentially dead: Most project teams that previously relied on storytelling and token sales to raise funds have been eliminated by this round of liquidity contraction, leaving only a few with genuine long-term viability.

(2) Comprehensive slowdown of secondary quantitative strategies: Statistical arbitrage and cross-exchange arbitrage, which were easily achievable in 2024, have been significantly compressed since 2025; many teams have been forced to shift toward market making, options trading, and margin arbitrage, with annualized returns declining from 30–40% to the 10–15% range, while risk management requirements are now far stricter than before.

(3) Leading exchanges are also struggling with liquidity: Some of the top five exchanges by volume are proactively seeking partnerships with traditional precious metals exchanges and even considering selling partial equity—simply because internal liquidity is tight and they can no longer independently absorb large market swings.

(1) Exchange: Need to boost activity and release trading sentiment to offset losses and customer attrition since November.

(2) Hedge funds and quantitative institutions: Under the dual pressure of high leverage and extreme funding rates, they must recover losses from the previous liquidation while seizing limited opportunities to recoup their funds.

(3) Regulation and Policy: In major financial centers in Europe, the U.S., and the Middle East, increasing requirements for compliance licenses, margin levels, and frequency of follow-ups are causing capital to hesitate between whether to enter the market and whether it can stay.

What you see on the chart is volatility; what they’re calculating at the table is how to use limited water to keep the surface afloat and complete round after round of chip exchanges.

Key Bitcoin Price Levels: Bullish Trap Risk Above $74,000 and $80,000

At the specific price level, Dr. Andy’s approach is not a mysterious “magic level,” but a clear scenario framework.

(1) 71,000–74,000: This range has been a strong resistance zone during Bitcoin’s recent multiple attempts to break through. Whether it can hold is not determined by a single daily candle, but by whether the price can oscillate around 74,000 for several consecutive days without quickly falling back below 71,000.

(2) If the price successfully holds above $74,000 over the next two weeks, bulls may push the market toward $80,000; however, this would more likely resemble a “capital inflow + final bullish push” rather than a sustained rally, and its continuation will heavily depend on whether institutions are willing to further increase their positions, not merely on momentum.

(3) Once it reaches 80,000: A strong pump-and-dump is highly likely, as the previous drop from around 90,000 to 60,000 wiped out highly leveraged positions held by institutions and exchanges—these losses must be recouped during the next upward movement.

(1) You can follow along during key breakouts, but you must set your take-profit and stop-loss levels in advance—especially around 80,000. It’s better to sell a little early than to fantasize about reaching 100,000 in one go.

(2) If 74,000 fails to hold steadily and keeps being pushed back near 70,000, it is likely to continue oscillating between 68,000 and 70,000 until May. The true direction will only become clearer after the new Fed chair takes office and subsequent policies are implemented.

Within this framework, Bitcoin is no longer simply a “bet on rising or falling prices,” but rather: clearly identifying whether you’re engaging in short-term swing trading, accumulating at the bottom, or following a trend within each price range, and pairing each strategy with well-defined exit rules.

By March 19, the trend reversed sharply: Bitcoin dropped from just above $70,000, briefly falling below the $70,000 mark during trading, with a 24-hour decline of nearly 6%.

The total cryptocurrency market cap declined from approximately $2.55 trillion to the range of $2.35–2.4 trillion, wiping out over $100 billion in a single day. Many positions that had been chasing prices in the $72,000–74,000 range the previous day turned from paper gains into paper losses.

From the candlestick pattern perspective, this is a classic case of “high-volume surge at the top followed by a high-volume long bearish candle the next day”: the previous day’s medium to large bullish candle pushed sentiment to a peak, and the next day’s long bearish candle nearly swallowed up all of the prior day’s gains—this is a textbook example of a bull trap and distribution structure in classical price action.

From the price movement on March 18–19, where it surged to 74,000 and then sharply dropped back below 70,000 the next day with increased volume, we’ve seen a complete textbook example: how sentiment is ignited, how positions are exchanged at elevated levels, and how a rapid role reversal—from buyer to trapped holder—can occur within a single day.

In this highly complex cycle, no one can guarantee buying at the absolute bottom or selling at the absolute top. But you can choose not to bet on this next phase using the outdated logic from the previous cycle.

Over the next three to six months, if a similar structure reappears, you'll need more than luck—you'll need a concrete, actionable strategy in place ahead of time.