BlockBeats news: On January 6, Bitwise's head of research, Ryan Rasmussen, posted an article stating, "Wall Street's explanation for Bitcoin's approximately 5% increase is as follows: Venezuela's oil reserves have been released, causing oil prices to fall, which leads to lower inflation and lower interest rates, thus pushing Bitcoin prices up. However, this logic is flawed. In the short term, the probability of interest rate cuts has remained largely unchanged compared to last week. Even when looking ahead to the end of 2026, after Maduro's arrest, expectations for rate cuts remain unchanged. Since Maduro's arrest, the factors that have driven Bitcoin's price up by more than 5% include the following:"
· Institutional Adoption (Bullish for Bitcoin): Since the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024, institutional capital has been continuously flowing into the crypto market, and this trend is accelerating. With major platforms such as Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, and Merrill Lynch (a subsidiary of Bank of America) beginning to allocate assets (for example, a net inflow of approximately $500 million into Bitcoin ETFs in a single day on January 2nd), institutional participation is significantly increasing.
· Shift in Cryptocurrency Regulation (Positive for Bitcoin): As a crypto-friendly regulatory direction gradually takes shape following the 2024 election, the crypto industry will begin to tangibly benefit from this policy shift. Wall Street institutions, including wealth management firms, university endowments, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds, are starting to allocate Bitcoin more seriously and systematically.
· AI optimism (positive for risk assets): Concerns about an AI bubble in the market are easing. Investor sentiment is turning optimistic, and capital is flowing back into risk-on assets, such as tech stocks and Bitcoin.
· Unchanged interest rate cut expectations (positive for risk assets): Maduro's arrest has not materially altered the short-term expectations for interest rate cuts, nor does it mean quantitative easing (QE) has been ruled out, as QE has only just begun. The market previously, and still currently, expects a 50 basis point (or even more) rate cut by 2026.
"Events in Venezuela this weekend have had some impact on Bitcoin, but they are not the main reason for its approximately 5% price increase."