On Tuesday, the cryptocurrency market showed strong momentum, with Bitcoin (BTC) rising to $76,500, up approximately 1% since midnight UTC.
At 9:45 AM, the price surged to around $77,000, before encountering resistance from spot sellers likely aiming to prevent a breakout above Friday’s high of $78,300.
Due to the $290 million attack on KelpDAO over the weekend, investors remain cautious toward altcoins, causing Ethereum (ETH) to underperform Bitcoin, rising only 0.3% to $2,320.
The war in Iran remains a key factor influencing oil price movements, as the U.S. Vice President is set to travel to Pakistan for peace negotiations. If the peace talks succeed, oil prices could decline, thereby supporting risk assets that have been negatively correlated since the outbreak of the war.
U.S. stock index futures rose, indicating a return of market risk appetite.
Derivatives position
- The long/short ratio in the cryptocurrency futures market is 50.68%, indicating that long and short positions are nearly balanced. In other words, traders are largely holding a wait-and-see stance on the market’s next directional move.
- Over the past 24 hours, open interest (OI) for major tokens such as BTC, SOL, HYPE, and BNB increased by 1%-3%, indicating capital inflow. OI for ETH, DOGE, and ZEC slightly declined.
- The open interest for AAVE futures has risen to a record high of 3.59 million contracts. Meanwhile, the open interest-adjusted cumulative volume differential has turned negative—indicating that sell orders are dominating and squeezing buy orders—while the funding rate remains near zero. Collectively, these factors point to a slightly bearish trend.
- Funding rates for Bitcoin and Ethereum remain negative, indicating a market bias toward short positions. This prolonged bearish environment creates potential risk for a short squeeze. In such a scenario, price resilience could force heavy short covering, further pushing up spot prices.
- At the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), trading activity in Bitcoin futures has continued to cool, even as exchange-traded funds (ETFs) continue to attract millions of dollars in inflows. This suggests that the capital flowing into ETFs primarily stems from bullish directional bets rather than arbitrage trades—namely, shorting Bitcoin futures to hedge long ETF positions.
- On the Deribit platform, put options for BTC and ETH continue to trade at higher prices than call options, reflecting market concerns about downside risk.
- Regarding large-volume trades (over-the-counter), straddles and strangles have collectively accounted for more than 50% of trading volume in the past 24 hours.
Token Talk
- The altcoin market continues to react to the $290 million attack on KelpDAO over the weekend, with DeFi tokens Ethena (ENA), EtherFi (ETHFI), and Jupiter (JUP) all posting losses over the past 24 hours, though they have slightly recovered since midnight UTC.
- On Tuesday, the CoinDesk Memecoin Index (CDMEME) underperformed, declining 0.24%, while the Bitcoin-dominated CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) rose 0.65%.
- The altcoin market remains uncertain, with the CoinDesk 80 (CD80) index holding steady during Asian and European trading hours.
- AAVE began to recover some of its losses after falling 22% over the weekend, rising 2.6% despite widespread negative sentiment across the DeFi sector.
- CoinMarketCap’s “Altcoin Season” indicator is at 39/100, up from last weekend’s low of 34/100, but still indicates that investors favor Bitcoin over altcoins.