Bitcoin Reclaims $80K as Nonfarm Payrolls Surpass Expectations

Author: Shenchao TechFlow

At 8:30 AM on Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed its hidden card: non-farm payroll employment increased by 115,000 in April, nearly double the median expectation of 62,000.

The market's reaction was immediate. The S&P 500 closed up 0.84% at 7,398.93, setting a new all-time closing high. The Nasdaq surged 1.71% to close at 26,247.08, marking the first time in human financial history that this index closed above 26,000. The Dow barely moved, rising just 12.19 points to close at 49,609.16—falling short of the 50,000 milestone by nearly 400 points, a "nearly there but not quite" pattern that has persisted for several days.

This week’s performance warrants a comprehensive review: the S&P 500 rose 2.3% for the week, and the Nasdaq climbed 4.5%, both marking their sixth consecutive week of gains—the longest weekly winning streak since 2024. This represents Wall Street’s full recovery from its lows to historic highs, three months after the outbreak of the war in Iran.

But the number 115,000 delights the market not because of its magnitude, but because it falls within the hardest-to-replicate range: "just right."

Strong: 115,000 jobs added—nearly double expectations—alleviating the market’s most immediate concern that “war is destroying the labor market.” The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, with no upward spike. Healthcare added 37,000 jobs, transportation and warehousing added 30,000, and retail added 22,000—the employment pillars of consumer spending remain intact.

Not hot enough: Average hourly earnings rose only 0.2% month-over-month and 3.6% year-over-year, both below the expected 0.3% and 3.8%. Wage growth is slowing, indicating that the wage-price spiral is not accelerating. The Fed, seeing this data, has no need to raise rates.

Austan Goolsbee’s comment on CNBC was today’s most accurate summary: "The labor market has been essentially stable for the past year to year and a half." Neither collapsing nor overheating, this is precisely the labor market condition the market needs most for 2026.

Tech stocks led today’s gains, with the semiconductor sector continuing to digest recent advances following AMD’s +18%, SMCI’s +25%, and ARM’s +14% this week. However, the Nasdaq’s overall performance indicates that major tech weightings remain strong. Datadog’s 30% surge after hours last night was smoothly realized today, and the cybersecurity sector (Datadog, Fortinet, CrowdStrike, Palo Alto) was among the strongest subsectors on Friday. This development aligns perfectly with the core narrative of Agentic AI: as AI systems proliferate, the tools to monitor and protect them become increasingly valuable.

The only major hot potato is CoreWeave.

CoreWeave (CRWV) fell approximately 11-12% intraday on Friday, making it today's most prominent countermarket decline.

From any financial metric perspective, its Q1 performance was solid: revenue of $2.08 billion, up 127% year-over-year and exceeding the expected $1.97 billion; a backlog of nearly $100 billion in revenue; Q1 delivered the strongest new contract quarter in history, with new contract commitments exceeding $40 billion; the full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $12–13 billion remains unchanged.

The reason for the drop is only two words: guidance.

Q2 revenue guidance of $2.45–2.6 billion, with a midpoint of $2.525 billion, falls short of the Wall Street consensus of $2.69 billion, a shortfall of approximately 6.5%, which is unacceptable at this valuation level. Meanwhile, the 2026 Capex floor has been raised from $30 billion to $31 billion due to "rising component prices," mirroring ARM—semiconductor supply chain inflation is systematically eroding the cost base of AI infrastructure companies. Losses widened to $740 million, more than doubling from $315 million in the same period last year.

But what truly drove the final nail into this performance report was an SEC filing revealing that CEO Mike Intrator sold approximately 307,000 shares—valued at around $39 million—on May 5, two days before the earnings release, through a pre-arranged 10b5-1 trading plan. During the same period, EVP Chen Goldberg sold 19,222 shares.

Both transactions were conducted within a compliance framework. The existence of the 10b5-1 plan means these sales were arranged months in advance and are unrelated to the earnings announcement timing. But the market doesn’t care about these technical details—it only sees one image: the CEO converted $39 million in stock to cash just before the company issued disappointing guidance. The market’s reaction to this timing is always to sell first and think later.

CEO Intrator remained calm about the decline, telling Reuters: "I don't pay attention to whether the market praises or criticizes me today. I'm building a company." Only time can tell if this statement is genuine.

However, CoreWeave’s most important metrics deserve separate attention and shouldn’t be overshadowed by today’s -12%: a $99 billion order backlog, 75% of its $30 billion annualized revenue guidance for 2027 already contracted, and 2026 capacity “nearly sold out.” As CFO Nitin Agrawal stated verbatim: “We’ve almost sold out our 2026 capacity.” This is not a company whose business is shrinking—it’s a company spending faster than it’s earning, and in the AI infrastructure industry, that may well be the right strategy.

Brent closed near $97–99 on Friday, while WTI ranged between $91–94, generally remaining below $100.

The impact of nighttime clashes is absorbed during the day, and the market has learned to "discount" news from the Iranian front: each minor conflict triggers a brief spike, followed by a return to previous levels once it’s confirmed that escalation has not occurred. This discount rate continues to rise as the war persists.

JPMorgan’s analysis report this week is worth quoting in full: Current traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped to just 4% of normal levels, resulting in a daily shortfall of approximately 13 million barrels of oil. This is not a case of "supply tightening"—this is a case of "supply nearly cut off." JPMorgan economists expect that as oil prices remain high, consumers will begin to adjust their behavior and reduce energy consumption—meaning "demand destruction" is beginning to occur. This is the final, and most painful, self-correcting mechanism for oil prices.

When demand destruction becomes a means to balance supply and demand, it is not energy companies' revenues that are harmed, but the quality of life for ordinary American households. Michigan consumer confidence at 55.2 is already signaling this to the market.

On May 8, Bitcoin experienced its third dramatic "in and out" at the $80,000 level within a week.

Nighttime clashes (between the U.S. and Iran near the Strait of Hormuz) triggered approximately $300 million in futures liquidations, causing Bitcoin to drop from an opening price of $80,345 to a low of $79,174, falling below $80,000. However, with the non-farm payrolls data released in the morning showing 115,000 jobs added—significantly exceeding expectations—while wage growth came in below forecasts, renewed market expectations for rate cuts spurred a broad rebound in risk assets. Bitcoin quickly recovered to around $80,500 and further climbed to close in the $81,000–81,500 range, supported by a strong rally in the Nasdaq.

In addition, Coinbase experienced several hours of system outages today due to AWS infrastructure issues, which disrupted trading. After restoration, the platform issued a statement confirming full resolution and announced it would launch an investigation. The exchange’s outage on the busiest trading day of the month—the non-farm payrolls release—was today’s most embarrassing technical incident.

CoinDesk concluded with a weekly perspective: Bitcoin closed April at $76,300, achieving the "second consecutive monthly gain" described by Fundstrat’s Tom Lee last night at Consensus 2026. If Bitcoin closes May above $76,000, it will mark a third consecutive monthly rise—the threshold he defines as the official end of the crypto winter. The current price far exceeds this level.

OTC desk data provides the most critical structural evidence for this rally: over the past 30 days, OTC balances have shifted from a +25,300 BTC net inflow (when Bitcoin was around $60,000 in early February) to a roughly -25,000 BTC net outflow—meaning the large buyers who couldn’t sell at $60,000 are now quietly removing supply from the market at around $80,000. Supply is decreasing not because retail investors are holding, but because institutions are continuously absorbing it.

The final wall on the technical side remains intact: $81,486 is the average cost basis for short-term holders, $82,228 is the 200-day moving average, and $83,700 is the average holding cost for spot ETF holders. These three levels, stacked from bottom to top, form Bitcoin’s most concentrated resistance zone. Breaking through them signals the beginning of a structural bull market; retreating from them is a return ticket to the next test at $75,000.

On May 8, a "just right" jobs report capped off the most impressive week of this rally.

U.S. Stocks: The S&P 500 closed at 7,398.93 (+0.84%), while the Nasdaq closed above 26,000 for the first time at 26,247.08 (+1.71%). The Dow Jones remained nearly flat, missing out on today’s tech-driven rally. This week, the S&P 500 rose 2.3% and the Nasdaq gained 4.5%, marking its sixth consecutive weekly gain—the longest winning streak since the start of 2024. CoreWeave dropped approximately 12% (due to below-consensus Q2 guidance and insiders selling $39 million ahead of earnings), while Datadog continued its post-market rally.

Non-Farm Payrolls: April added 115,000 jobs, significantly exceeding the expected 62,000; unemployment rate at 4.3%; hourly wages rose 0.2%/3.6%, both below expectations—a Goldilocks data point, strong enough to avoid market panic but weak enough to deny the Fed justification for rate hikes. Technology and information sector lost 13,000 jobs, continuing the signal that AI is reshaping employment structures.

Oil/Gold: Brent at $97–99, WTI at $91–94, remaining below $100. JPMorgan: 13 million barrels per day missing from the Strait of Hormuz; demand destruction is becoming the only path to market balance. Gold held at $4,717–4,720.

Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin experienced intraday volatility, dropping below $80,000 during overnight trading, then rebounding to $81,000–$81,500 after the NFP report, before once again holding above $80,000. The triple resistance zone at $81,486 / $82,228 / $83,700 represents the most critical price levels for the next phase. Coinbase suffered several hours of trading disruption due to an AWS outage.

Key calendar for next week: Tuesday’s CPI data (April inflation) and Wednesday’s PPI. Whether inflation will show a significant slowdown due to falling oil prices is the most critical data combination determining whether the Fed can shift its stance at its June 17 meeting (Warsh’s first as chair). If CPI falls more than expected, expectations for rate cuts could reignite, leaving room for further gains from current all-time highs; if inflation remains stubborn, Warsh’s first meeting as chair could become a potential scenario for a surprise rate hike.

At least today, one thing is certain: the market has proven with six consecutive weeks of gains that AI-driven profitability remains the most solid foundation for this valuation level, even under the combined pressures of war, Brent at $126, Powell’s departure, and MAG4 Capex at $725 billion. That gap of 13 million barrels per day is the unresolved crack beneath the foundation.