Bitcoin rose approximately 13% in April, and online prediction markets suggest traders expect prices to remain relatively stable in May.
Specifically, as of the time of writing this article, Karshi estimates a 64% probability that the flagship cryptocurrency will remain above $76,000 until 5:00 PM Eastern Time tomorrow.
Contracts tied to Bitcoin's price breaking above $76,500 show a 47% implied probability, while the likelihood of the asset returning to $77,000 is 37%, indicating that traders see limited upside potential for Bitcoin over the next 24 hours.
The overall market declined by 1%, showing relatively low correlation with the S&P 500 Index. Most traders expect little upward movement for Bitcoin tomorrow, reflecting a broader risk-averse sentiment at the macroeconomic level.
The Federal Reserve also decided to hold interest rates steady, while signaling that rates will remain "high for an extended period." Coupled with rising interest rates, the Fed's policy direction is becoming clearer. Oil prices and the stance related to the conflict with Iran have put pressure on speculative assets such as cryptocurrencies.
Liquidation waves on leverage have further pressured Bitcoin’s price, with over $110 million in Bitcoin positions liquidated, accelerating the downward momentum.
Bitcoin price trend
In the short term, Bitcoin is currently trading just above the key technical support level of $76,200, aligning closely with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Maintaining this level could indeed lead to price consolidation between $76,240 and $79,000; however, given that a breakdown below this range may trigger a significant drop to $73,500—especially if high oil prices persist—a cautiously optimistic market sentiment appears reasonable.
Looking ahead, market focus will center on macroeconomic and technical signals. Notably, a de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East or a shift in Federal Reserve policy messaging could help stabilize market sentiment. Similarly, ...Bitcoin ETF fund flows could provide additional support.
Overall, the short-term outlook is neutral. Bitcoin’s movement currently depends on whether it can hold its current support level amid ongoing macroeconomic volatility.
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