Key Insights:
- Willy Woo noted that spot and futures liquidity could defang BTC’s rebound attempt into the $70K+ zone. He noted that this bear market could see BTC drop to $45,000.
- Ted Pillows warned that $60,000 might not be the bottom in this bear market. However, it may be tempting to perceive it as that.
- CyrptoQuant suggested that BTC could bottom out this year itself, if historical halving patterns reappear.
Market analysts are increasingly confident that Bitcoin’s ongoing bearish trend is nearing an end. While some are speculating, others are citing historical patterns to suggest that a bottom is in. These analyses cover price action and on-chain reality.
Analyst: Sell-off Exhausted Amid Fading Spot, Futures Liquidity
On January 15th, 2026, BTC plummeted from $97,165 to a year-to-date (YTD) low of $59,930 on February 6th. That’s nearly 40% drop. This drop occurred over a period of 22 days, liquidating several thousand positions.
Now, as BTC seems to be holding ground above $64,000, analysts are sharing insights on cycle bottoms. At the time of writing this report, BTC price was $67,642, reflecting a 0.2% rise from yesterday’s closing price.
Willy Woo, a veteran analyst, noted on X that the sell-off had seemingly exhausted itself. The market commentator also mentioned that BTC might even rebound to mid-$70Ks.
However, Woo added that a rebound would be capped around the mid-$70Ks due to extremely bearish conditions. Per the analyst, deteriorated spot and futures liquidity explained the bearishness.
$60K Might Not be the Bottom, Likely a Trap, Analyst Warns
Ted Pillows, another commentator, warned that BTC price might break out of a strong resistance as part of a trap.
Pillows noted that people might see $60,000 as a bottom zone. However, he noted that BTC might post a new low if that happens.
Ted cited the chart and suggested that the BTC price may repeat a fractal. He said the first pattern appeared between October last year and January 2026. He added the second occurred between late November and early January this year.
According to Pillows, investors and traders might perceive a breakout from the early $70Ks as a true one. However, according to the fractal pattern on Ted’s chart, there’s a chance that such a breakout is false.
Woo projected a bottom at around $45,000 for this bear market.
“BTC has only ever existed in a secular global macro bull market 2009-2026. If global macro breaks down, then 30k is the fall back level of support, 16k as the final line to maintain BTC’s bull trend,” Woo added in his X post.
Halving Patterns Suggest BTC Price Could Bottom in 2026
CryptoQuant noted that BTC tended to bottom out after a multi-year period since the halving date. This platform regularly shares data-based crypto market analysis. Based on that historical pattern, the present bearish trend could bottom out between October and December 2026.
BTC reached its bottom 777 days after the first halving in 2012. By that logic, June 4th this year could mark the latest bottom. The bottom after September 24th, 2026, halving appeared 889 days later. This would translate to a bottom on September 24th, 2026.
Lastly, the last halving-to-bottom period was 925 days (2020). Based on this, CryptoQuant pointed out the possibility of a bottom on October 30th this year.
Senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas had earlier pointed out that BTC Spot ETFs reported strong net inflows after several weeks. The strong inflows came in on Wednesday, breaking a five-week net outflow streak.
The same day, BTC posted a strong daily green candle, briefly touching the $70,000 mark. Notably, Balchunas was not sure if BTC’s Wednesday spike was a strong signal of a trend reversal.
Analysts across the board are clearly not confident if BTC is primed for a trend reversal. However, speculation about Bitcoin’s true bottom is increasing. Amid all the speculation, spot ETF flows are yet to be factored in.
The post Bitcoin Price Outlook: Analysts Say Bottom’s In, But Trap Looms appeared first on The Market Periodical.