Bitcoin rose to nearly $82,500 on Wednesday, the highest level since January, but has since declined over the past 24 hours, recently trading below $80,000.
Analysts say this overall move (with the largest crypto asset rising over 17% in the past month) is still part of a “bear market rally.” Crypto quant As profit levels rise, Bitcoin may be due for additional selling pressure.
The company wrote: "On May 4, Bitcoin holders realized a daily profit of 14.6K BTC, the highest level since December 10, as a 37% rebound from the April low pushed holders back into profitable territory." The company also noted that this [surge] created "the first major profit realization event since December 2025," as short-term holders have been locking in gains since mid-April.
The company continued: "Historically, spikes in realized profits at key resistance levels during bear markets have often signaled the arrival of local price tops or prolonged consolidation phases."
According to CryptoQuant data, Bitcoin traders' 30-day net realized profit has returned to positive territory, meaning more holders have realized profits than losses during this period—CryptoQuant has labeled this a "structural turning point" in market dynamics.
However, the current profit-taking volume of 20,000 BTC remains significantly lower than the profit-taking volume typically seen during a bull market transition, which approaches 130,000–200,000 BTC.
The report states: "This distinction reinforces the classification as a bear market rally rather than a structural regime shift."
As unrealized profits have risen to their highest level since June 2025, CryptoQuant warns that this level indicates "an increased risk of correction as traders become more motivated to lock in profits."
However, the company noted that price corrections may take time to materialize due to strong demand for perpetual futures, weak exchange inflows, and only modest declines in spot demand. For now, historically similar situations have typically “supported continued short-term price strength”—a bear market rally.
Bitcoin's latest trading price is $80,150, rebounding above $80,000 after dropping to $79,692 in early trading on Thursday. At the current price, Bitcoin is more than 36% below its all-time high of $126,080 set in October.
Other major crypto assets, such as Ethereum and Ripple-related XRP, also declined today, falling more than 2% each to around $2,301 and $1.39, respectively. Over $269 million in crypto long positions (bets that asset prices would rise) have been liquidated.According to CoinGlass, these positions were liquidated within the past 24 hours.
Users on Myriad (a prediction market platform operated by...) remain optimistic that Bitcoin will reach $84,000 faster than it will drop to $55,000, with a provisional probability of 83% as of the time of this writing.