Bitcoin’s price has been falling lately alongside an upswing in U.S. Treasury yields. Yet BTC’s implied volatility, a measure of uncertainty, is acting as if none of that is true. That’s the real story because it’s setting the stage for “volatility bulls” to step in and bet on wild swings via options.
Here is the setup.
Bitcoin’s price has dropped from $82,000 to $77,000 since May 15, according to CoinDesk market data. The 6% slide is characterized by massive outflows from spot ETFs and hardening of U.S. Treasury yields. Moreover, there are signs of real stress in Treasury bonds, which underpin the global finance. The MOVE index, which measures the implied volatility in Treasury notes, has popped from 69% to 85%.
Normally, this kind of situation has traders scrambling to buy options, derivative contracts that provide protection from price volatility, resulting in an uptick in the implied or expected volatility. But that’s not the case so far.
Bitcoin’s annualized 30-day implied volatility index, BVIV, has held steady at around 42%, just above a year-to-date low of 40%, according to TradingView data.
That looks cheap when viewed against the backdrop of falling prices and rising yields. In other words, the market may be underpricing the actual uncertainty and risk brewing beneath the surface. Volatility traders, therefore, could step in, betting that this current calm is simply the quiet before a bigger storm.
“In the options market, BTC IV is historically low: implieds have compressed to the high-30s/low-40s, printing new 2026 lows. That's cheap vol in absolute terms,” Deribit's Chief Commercial Officer Jean-David Péquignot told CoinDesk.
Deribit is the world’s largest crypto options exchange, accounting for over 70% of the global crypto options market.
Péquignot explained that low volatility makes a straddle strategy an especially attractive way to profit from potential future swings. A straddle involves simultaneously buying both a call and a put option at the same strike price and expiry, essentially betting on a significant move in either direction, up or down.
A call option becomes profitable if the price rises, effectively protecting against missing out on price rallies, while a put option covers against price slides by profiting if the price falls. Buying both, therefore, is a way to bet on big movement in either direction, without needing to predict which way it will go.
“BTC vol being this cheap while price is at a key breakout level can be a good setup for long vol / long straddle positioning ahead of a macro catalyst (next CPI print, Fed speech),” he said.