BTC has fallen from May 11, when it traded near $82,349, to the $58,150 support area, a decline of about -29.39%. The correction developed in two phases: first from May 11 to June 5, and then from June 16, when BTC dropped from $66,713 to $58,150 (-12.84%).
A key signal comes from Open Interest, which started contracting on June 15, falling from $23.495 billion to $20.533 billion (-12.61%). This suggests lower exposure, position closures and reduced leverage in derivatives, weakening part of the structure that had supported price.
This futures weakness is also accompanied by a sharp decline in spot volume, from 35,988.95 on June 15 to 15,335.18 on June 28 (-57.39%). BTC is losing support not only in derivatives, but also in real spot participation.
Aggressive flow also confirms selling pressure. The Taker Buy Sell Ratio moved from 1.0476 on June 15 to 0.9137 on June 24 (-12.78%). Below 1, dominance shifts to the sell side. Although the ratio later moved back above 1, price failed to recover relevant structural levels.
Funding Rate remained mostly positive during the decline, but compressed toward low levels. On June 15, it stood at 0.00145 and later approached near-neutral levels. This shows that a long bias still existed, but without enough strength to support price.
Overall, BTC is falling while Open Interest declines, spot volume contracts sharply, taker flow shows seller dominance and positive Funding fails to support the market.
Conclusion
If weakness continues in spot and futures, BTC could remain under downside pressure. The key area to watch is $53,400–$55,000.
CryptoQuant’s Realized Price places Bitcoin at $53,418.60, based on June 23 UTC data. The $54,879 area, close to the estimated mining cost of one BTC, is very near that realized price.
MVRV is also converging toward 1 in this area, a level historically linked to relative undervaluation and possible market bottoms.
By Carmelo Alemán
On-Chain Analyst | CryptoQuant Verified
