Bitcoin (BTC) slipped below the estimated $101,000 miner breakeven level on January 12, even as on-chain data and macro headlines stirred debate about whether the market is setting up for a rebound.
The move has split opinion across the crypto community, with some analysts pointing to early signs of renewed demand while others warn that fragile technicals still leave room for further downside.
On-Chain Data and Macro Noise Shape the Near-Term Picture
Several analysts on X argued that Bitcoin’s pullback may be masking improving underlying conditions. According to Wise Crypto, on-chain capital flows appear to have bottomed and are now strengthening, while the price trades below miner cost, a zone that has often coincided with longer-term lows in past cycles.
Macro developments also added another layer of complexity, with reports from the New York Times saying that federal prosecutors had opened an inquiry involving Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, tied to a dispute over interest rate policy and a $2.5 billion headquarters renovation. While this news introduced political uncertainty, Bitcoin’s price showed minor positive movement, with VanEck’s Matthew Sigel noting it gained about 1% without any change to its fundamental issuance schedule.
From a technical standpoint, sentiment is more mixed. EGRAG CRYPTO pointed out that Bitcoin’s monthly RSI has slipped below the key 60 level, placing momentum in a neutral-to-slightly bearish zone, though the indicator is beginning to curl higher. Other traders, such as Crypto Chase, warned that hesitation around the $92,000–$93,000 area could signal a lack of urgency from buyers.
A Divergence Between Price and On-Chain Health
The price of Bitcoin has been relatively stable, showing a 1% increase over the last 24 hours but remaining down nearly 1% for the week. On a monthly basis, the asset is modestly higher, though it remains roughly 27% below its October 2025 peak near $126,000.
Nonetheless, on-chain metrics cited by CryptosRus suggest the market does not yet resemble a cycle top. Measures such as the Puell Multiple and MVRV are elevated but far from levels that previously marked overheated conditions, pointing to a mid-cycle pause rather than outright exhaustion.
Still, more cautious voices, including CryptoQuant contributor Sunny Mom, argue that losing key weekly moving averages above $101,000 has shifted the structure to the downside, with heavy resistance forming near $96,000.
For now, BTC sits at a crossroads between improving on-chain signals and unsettled technical levels. The primary bullish thesis rests on the combination of Bitcoin’s proximity to miner cost bases, quietly returning spot fund flows, and a macro environment where political pressure on the Federal Reserve could weaken the dollar’s standing.
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