Bitcoin is currently trading slightly below a key resistance zone. Analysts have been monitoring this trend since February. A short-term rebound has pushed the price back to this level, but it has not yet broken through convincingly. Weekend resistance is between $80,600 and $82,000. Weekend support is between $79,640 and $76,500.
If Bitcoin continues to rise, its near-term upside target is $84,300 to fill the CME gap, followed by $87,500 and $90,600, which are the next resistance levels above.
Why haven't analysts predicted the bottom yet?
Despite recent rebounds, analysts say there is still no conclusive evidence that a meaningful low has been formed. Three indicators support this view.
First, Bitcoin has not yet fallen below the real price of long-term holders based on the on-chain cost model. In every previous bear market, Bitcoin’s price has at least touched this level, and in most cases, it was thoroughly breached before forming a major low. This has not yet occurred.
Second, the current Bitcoin price has declined by approximately 53% to 54% from its historical high. In previous Bitcoin bear markets, declines typically ranged from 60% to 84% before rebounding. Compared to historical trends, the current pullback has been relatively modest.
Third, Elliott Wave Theory analysis suggests that the current movement is a corrective B-wave rally within a larger downtrend structure. A subsequent C-wave decline is still possible later this year.
$38,000 to $39,000 range
If the downtrend fully unfolds, the next downside target lies between $38,000 and $39,000. This level represents a roughly 70% decline from the historical high and aligns with the standard Fibonacci retracement zones used by analysts to measure pullbacks from prior rallies.
Nevertheless, analysts emphasize that this is not the final goal. The B-wave top must form first before the C-wave decline can be accurately measured.
What factors could lead Bitcoin into a bull market?
To overturn the bearish outlook, Bitcoin needs to break above $90,000, particularly the 138% Fibonacci extension level. This would confirm that the third upward wave is forming and open the door to targeting $94,500 and higher.
The current movement is viewed as a corrective rally within a larger bearish pattern until the level is reached and held. Time cycle analysis suggests that the market top may form between May and June, and if this cycle holds, a bottom could occur around October.