On April 17, Bitcoin rose to $76.4k, marking its highest level since the sharp sell-off in February. However, several on-chain and market indicators are beginning to diverge from price action, suggesting that short-term downside risk should still be kept in mind. Bitcoin ETF: Daily Change in Total Bitcoin Holdings* (7-day SMA) This indicator reflects the daily change in the amount of Bitcoin flowing into spot Bitcoin ETFs and can be used to gauge the strength of spot demand. Recently, while Bitcoin’s price has continued to move higher, this indicator has started to soften. That suggests the spot demand supporting the rally may not be as strong as the price action alone would imply. Realized Profit and Loss ($) As of April 14, this indicator reached its highest level since the February sell-off. This suggests that a significant amount of profit-taking has taken place on-chain as Bitcoin moved higher. Exchange Inflow (Top10) This indicator measures the combined size of the top 10 Bitcoin inflows into exchange wallets. Recently, large BTC inflows to exchanges have picked up again, suggesting that the realized profits mentioned above may have been accompanied by actual transfers to exchanges, where selling pressure is more likely to emerge. Open Interest The futures market also does not yet show clear signs of aggressive bullish chasing. Open interest has pushed to a new high, but it is starting to diverge from price. This suggests that traders are not aggressively adding leveraged bullish exposure, and that position expansion remains relatively limited compared with the recent move higher in price. Overall, ETF inflows are losing momentum, while exchange deposits suggest rising sell pressure. At the same time, the futures market is not showing strong bullish participation. Unless a major catalyst emerges, it still seems too early to view this move as a full bullish trend reversal.
Bitcoin On-Chain and Market Indicators Suggest Short-Term Pullback
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Summary
On-chain analysis shows Bitcoin hitting $76.4k on April 17, a high since February’s sell-off. On-chain data reveals divergence between price and indicators, hinting at short-term downside risk. ETF inflows have slowed, realized PNL reached a post-February peak, and exchange inflows rose, pointing to possible selling. Open interest is at a record but is now diverging from price, showing weaker bullish momentum in futures.
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