Bitcoin Near 4-Year MA at $60K Faces Downside Risks to $50K

Bitcoin is flirting with a major technical floor as the market slides: crypto analyst Adam Livingston says the leading coin’s 4‑year moving average — currently sitting right around $60,000 — could mark this cycle’s bottom. Why it matters - Livingston notes BTC is only 22.75% above that 4‑year MA, a level historically rare: only about 18.5% of "valid days" have shown an even lower deviation from the 4‑year line, while roughly 81.5% of days traded at higher percentiles. - Historically, buying when Bitcoin was in this same “cheap” percentile band outperformed a straight daily dollar‑cost averaging strategy. Per Livingston’s calculation, every $10,000 deployed in those cheap windows would have grown to roughly $56,600, versus about $40,200 from a daily DCA over the same period — supporting the view that the 4‑year MA has been a high‑quality accumulation zone. Market action and downside risks - Bitcoin has slid from highs near $71,000 earlier this week and is trading around $63,600 at the time of writing, down more than 5% in 24 hours (CoinMarketCap). That decline has traders eyeing the February 2026 low of about $60,000 as a likely test. - Other analysts warn the path lower isn’t guaranteed to stop there. Crypto analyst Bluntz predicted BTC would close below $60,000 and sweep toward $58,000. Analyst Ali Martinez says the break below $72,000 has left BTC vulnerable, with MVRV pricing bands pointing to a next major support zone between $54,000 and $50,000 — meaning a drop to $50,000 is still on the table. Supply-side pressure - Martinez also highlighted elevated selling pressure: roughly 54,000 BTC were moved to exchanges over the past week, increasing short‑term available supply. Bitcoin ETFs haven’t been helping either — they’ve recorded 13 consecutive days of net outflows, adding to the selling dynamics. Bottom line Adam Livingston frames the 4‑year moving average near $60,000 as a historically favorable accumulation area and a plausible cycle bottom, but several analysts and on‑chain metrics signal meaningful downside risk toward the $54k–$50k range if selling accelerates. For traders and investors, the coming days will be critical for gauging whether $60k holds as support or gives way to deeper retracement.