Odaily Planet Daily report: A key on-chain metric for Bitcoin, the Market Value to Realized Value Z-Score (MVRV Z-Score), is approaching the typical threshold seen at historical bear market bottoms. This metric measures how far Bitcoin’s market price deviates from its realized value—the average cost per coin since its last on-chain transaction—helping investors determine whether the asset is overvalued or undervalued.
Data shows that the current MVRV Z-Score is 0.24, nearing the upper boundary of the green zone historically associated with accumulation (around 0 and below). Historically, each major bear market bottom has occurred when this indicator touched or briefly dipped into the green zone: during the first major decline in 2011–2012, in 2014, at the end of 2018, and in the second half of 2022—each setting the stage for the subsequent bull market.
However, the absolute bottom has not yet been confirmed. On-chain data shows that the Short-Term Holder MVRV (STH-MVRV) is at 0.84, while the Long-Term Holder MVRV (LTH-MVRV) remains high at 1.29, indicating that long-term holders still hold substantial unrealized profits. Historically, when the STH-MVRV and LTH-MVRV converge, it typically signals a cyclical bottom—as occurred in 2015, 2019, and 2022.
Although it is difficult to precisely predict market bottoms, conditions historically associated with rebounds are gradually emerging after hundreds of billions of dollars in selling last week, suggesting that Bitcoin’s bear market may be nearing its end. Investors can monitor on-chain MVRV metrics and changes in holder behavior to identify potential buying opportunities. (CoinDesk)