BlockBeats news, on February 25, analysts stated that the worst phase of Bitcoin’s 50% pullback may already be behind us, as hash rate indicators suggest that a three-month period of miner capitulation selling is about to end. Bitcoin often bottoms out when miners face maximum financial pressure. Capitulation occurs when mining revenues fall below operating costs, forcing less efficient miners to shut down their machines and sell Bitcoin reserves to cover electricity bills, debts, and operational expenses, leading to a decline in hash rate and sustained selling pressure on the market. When the 30-day moving average of hash rate crosses back above the 60-day moving average, it signals that miners are coming back online and pressure on the Bitcoin network is easing—a moment that is imminent.
Historically, approximately 20 miner capitulations have occurred since 2011, most of which coincided with local or major bottoms, including January 2015, December 2018, and December 2022. Hash rate is currently rebounding, and miner confidence is recovering in tandem. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is currently trading below its estimated average production cost of $66,000—a level typically regarded as a deep value zone. The last time this occurred was in November 2022, when Bitcoin bottomed around $15,500.