ChainCatcher report: A macro model combining the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield with China’s 10-year Treasury yield (US10Y × CN10Y) has recently generated an “extremely precise” bullish crossover signal, potentially signaling the next upward move for Bitcoin. Historical data shows that similar signals preceded the bull markets of 2013, 2017, 2020–2021, and 2023, corresponding to Bitcoin price increases of approximately 8,700%, 1,900%, 600%, and over 350%, respectively. Additionally, on-chain data indicates that whale addresses (wallets holding 1,000–10,000 BTC) have resumed accumulation during the recent price pullback, mirroring patterns observed near previous market bottoms. Analysts suggest that if Bitcoin stabilizes and rebounds near the 200-week moving average, the price could rise toward $100,000 by August; however, failure to break above the key resistance level of $78,000 may still pose a risk of forming a “bull trap.”
Bitcoin May Target $100,000 as Macro Model and Whale Activity Signal Bullish Outlook
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Summary
Whale activity is increasing as Bitcoin shows signs of a bullish trend. A macro model tracking U.S. and Chinese 10-year yields has triggered a bullish crossover, a pattern observed prior to major BTC rallies. On-chain data reveals that whale addresses are reaccumulating during the recent dip, mirroring behavior seen at past market bottoms. Analysts say Bitcoin could reach $100,000 by August if it holds near the 200-week moving average, but caution of a potential bull trap below $78,000.
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