BlockBeats news, on March 13, Forbes analysis noted that under oil price shocks triggered by geopolitical conflicts, Bitcoin typically struggles to serve as a safe-haven asset in the short term. Historical data shows that whether oil prices plunge or surge above $100, Bitcoin often faces downward pressure, albeit with differing timing and pace of decline.
Reports indicate that surging oil prices often signal rising inflationary pressures, forcing central banks to maintain high interest rates, thereby reducing the appeal of risk assets such as Bitcoin. Amid the escalation of tensions in Iran, international oil prices have once again risen above $100, while Bitcoin is trading around $70,000—approximately 45% below its all-time high of $126,000 set in October 2025.
Analysis suggests that if oil prices remain above $100 for an extended period, Bitcoin could still decline by an additional 15%–25%, potentially falling to a price range of $50,000–$58,000; if the conflict escalates and pushes oil prices to $130–$140, Bitcoin could drop to a range of $40,000–$45,000.
However, the report also notes that, historically, macroeconomic crises have often been followed by fiscal stimulus and liquidity expansion; once oil prices decline and monetary policy turns accommodative, Bitcoin typically experiences a larger rebound. If oil prices fall below $80 within several months, Bitcoin is expected to begin recovering by the end of 2026 and rechallenge the $100,000 level in the subsequent cycle.