Foreign media: Bitcoin may have approached the阶段性 low of this cycle, as some long-term indicators have once again entered the range observed during previous bottoms. However, buy orders on exchanges and U.S. spot ETF fund flows are currently not aligned, and the short-term price movement still lacks a clearer confirmation signal.
The article cites data from CryptoQuant, stating that the CVDD metric, which measures the behavior of long-term Bitcoin holders, has dropped to 0.3, entering an extremely low zone. Historically, similar levels occurred around 2019 and 2022, both of which were followed by significant market rebounds.
CVDD has returned to its historical low range.
CVDD, short for Cumulative Value Destroyed Days, estimates the lower bound of Bitcoin's fair value by analyzing on-chain behavior of long-term holders. The article suggests that this indicator has once again fallen into an extremely low range, indicating that the market is nearing a historically representative undervalued zone.
Price is close to the 200-week moving average.
On the weekly chart, Bitcoin is currently trading near the 200-week simple moving average, a level that has historically served as structural support in previous cycles. After last returning to this area, Bitcoin entered a prolonged consolidation phase from July 2022 to October 2023 before initiating a new upward trend.
Based on this, the article suggests that if the market replicates a similar pattern, it could either see a rapid rebound or remain range-bound for a longer period. The article also notes that the accumulation/distribution indicator shows continued buying pressure, with relevant trading volume at 17.11 million BTC, indicating that short- to medium-term capital has not fully exited.
Exchange and ETF fund flow divergence
Whether the rebound can continue depends primarily on whether genuine buying pressure is expanding. Over the past seven days, centralized exchanges have recorded net inflows into spot markets, with net purchases totaling approximately $234.75 million. During the same period, total Bitcoin purchases amounted to around $9.36 billion, indicating that some capital remains positioned to buy on dips.
However, signals from the U.S. market remain weak. The article notes that the overall net flow for U.S. spot ETFs still favors selling, with a net outflow of approximately $226.84 million, indicating that selling pressure has not yet fully subsided. Until broader incremental demand emerges, Bitcoin is likely to remain range-bound at lower levels in the short term.