Bitcoin's recent rally over the past few weeks has resulted in a smaller decline than any previous period, leading analysts to believe that the economic cycle may have permanently changed—though not everyone is convinced that old patterns are obsolete.
According to reports, as of press time, the leading cryptocurrency's price has declined approximately 36% from its all-time high of $126,080 set in October, trading around $80,500. CoinGecko data This pullback exceeds the magnitude of previous bear markets, which historically saw corrections of 40% to 50% from cycle peaks.
This shift is due to Bitcoin's recent rebound. Over the past 30 days, Bitcoin rose by 12.5%, but most of the rebound occurred between April 1 and May 6, driving the price of Bitcoin up by approximately 22%.
“From what we can see, the fourth Bitcoin bear market has become substantially disconnected from previous cycles,” said Pierre Rochard, CEO of Bitcoin Bonds Company. Twitter On Tuesday, he attributed this shift to a combination of factors, including weak front-end bull market momentum, ETF inflows, and continuous accumulation by Bitcoin Bonds Company.
Currently, Bitcoin’s fourth bear market appears to have significantly decoupled from previous cycles. This strength may result from a combination of factors, including weak front-end bull market momentum, ETF inflows, and increased accumulation by Bitcoin treasury companies. pic.twitter.com/Npd1xss242
— Pierre Rochard (@BitcoinPierre)May 11, 2026
Tiger Research senior research analyst Ryan Yoon told Decrypt that institutional-level shifts have introduced structural support not present in previous cycles. “Strong institutional capital from ETFs and strategy funds has created a ‘price floor,’ which is why Bitcoin’s movement differs from past cycles,” he said.
This divergence reflects three structural shifts: a decline in Bitcoin’s pricing power. Miners will face restricted long-term capital inflows through regulated channels following the reduced supply after the halving. ETFs, according to Allen Ding, Head of Research at Bitfire, have brought changes as product ownership and custody have shifted from early crypto holders to institutional accounts.
Ding stated: “This decoupling trend will not only continue but also define the new normal for crypto assets.” Decrypt characterizes the current market volatility as “a position adjustment before the onset of a long-term bull market,” rather than an irreversible turning point.
Has the Bitcoin bear market ended?
Not all analysts believe the bear market has ended.
Illia Otychenko, Chief Analyst at CEX.IO, said that although Bitcoin has broken through a key on-chain threshold—trading above its real market average and the cost basis of short-term holders—similar conditions occurred prior to brief recoveries in 2014, 2018, and 2022, after which bear markets resumed.
Otichenko said, "Bitcoin is not beyond repair." Decrypt
He added that nearly 70% of the short-term holder supply is currently in profit—the highest level since Bitcoin’s all-time high in October—historically, this level creates distribution pressure as holders face increasing incentives to sell.
Otichenko stated that, with Bitcoin's volatility over the past year near its historical low, any significant price movement would have a substantial impact. He also added that the U.S.-Iran conflict has made Bitcoin more susceptible to macroeconomic developments than at any time in recent memory.
Looking ahead
Yoon outlined two possible scenarios. “If the stock market remains stable, we may see investors shift funds into Bitcoin in a positive trend,” he said. “On the other hand, if the AI bubble truly bursts and triggers a market crash, Bitcoin could decline again, testing lower prices.”
Predictive market users countless from all decrypted parent company Dastan assigned only a 2% probability that expectations for U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks by May 15 would decline sharply, down from 30% on May 8—indicating the market is pricing in the continued absence of the peace catalyst that previously drove Bitcoin’s recent rebound. However, traders remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s prospects, assigning a 88% probability that Bitcoin’s next move will push its price to $84,000, compared to 85% during the same period last week.